The next boom: Next Generation Telecoms and FttH
By Paul Budde

The global telecommunications market is rapidly transforming. Telecom networks are undergoing extraordinary changes with investments in All-IP Next Generation Networks and fibre networks increasing in order to meet burgeoning consumer demand for high-bandwidth applications. The 'business case' for Fibre-to-the-Home networks is no longer based solely on the commercial returns from Internet access and other communication services. Important services that depend on high quality broadband infrastructure include telehealth, tele-education, e-business, digital media, e-government, smart utility meter reading, etc. These are all key reasons why developed nations need Next Generation Networks. In the developing markets, next generation telecoms will take the form of wireless NGNs (ie, LTE/WiMAX).

IP is at the core of NGNs as it facilitates affordable triple play business models and seamlessly integrates voice, data and video. The telecommunications network is dramatically changing to an IP driven environment and in 2008 the majority of corporate and government telecoms users have upgraded to All-IP networks. The next stage is to now upgrade the public networks.

While most people within the telecoms industry agree that FttH is the future, it is the countries with effective and strong regulatory policies that are forging ahead with a lively fibre footprint. Once regulators get the issue between their teeth and act, the fibre sector moves ahead because operators are no longer put off by regulatory uncertainty. By promoting effective fibre regimes, regulators are in turn supported by governments' conscious of the socio-economic benefits of fast broadband networks, and the consideration that such networks are vital to national infrastructure.

There are currently over 40 million FTTx subscribers worldwide. While DSL still retains the largest market share of broadband subscribers globally, there is some evidence that FttH uptake is growing at a faster rate. However it is important to note that mass deployment of FttH is in most countries still 5-10 years away. This is due partly to the developments in DSL (speed and reach), which are allowing the telcos to extend the life of their copper-based networks and also due to the costs involved in FttH deployment.

Asia continues to reign as the leading region, accounting for around 80% of all FTTx subscribers. Japan has the highest number of FTTx subscribers worldwide; however the USA, South Korea and parts of Europe are also rapidly rolling out. The uptake of GPON technology is expected to grow quickly in 2008 due to Verizon's roll-out, resulting in reductions in both GEPON and BPON market share.

Key highlights:

" In the developed world the plan for a national network must be based on the ultimate network architecture of FttH in metro areas, plus a combination of technologies elsewhere - with end-to-end facilities for organisations such as healthcare, education, utilities, media companies and so on.
" In 2008 Asia continues to dominate the rest of the world in terms of FttH market penetration.
" Worldwide FttH port shipments are expected to increase by over 80% in 2008.
" FttH and FttB were the most expensive broadband access technologies in the OECD.
" In Australia, the government is looking at using next-generation telecoms infrastructure to promote the digital economy. This includes applications such as tele-health, tele-education, smart grids, media, etc. BuddeComm has taken an industry leadership role to assist the government in this process.
" With the number of US homes passed by fibre growing at over 200%, the US is the fastest growing FttH market in the world.
" FttH and FttB are growing in popularity across Eastern Europe as incumbent and alternative operators alike deploy networks. Deployment costs and availability of existing copper last mile infrastructure in established suburbs has restricted most FttH/FttB deployments to greenfield sites or densely populated suburbs.

Broadband - Infrastructure blueprint

Broadband - Infrastructure blueprint

Area	Radius	Technologies	Population penetration
Metro		FttH	75-80%
Regional	30-50km	Mixture	15-25%
Remote	50km+	Satellite	1-2%

(Source: BuddeComm, 2008)

For more info see : 2008 Global - Next Generation Telecoms and FttH
Please note: Next Generation Mobile Networks are covered in 2008 Global Mobile Communications - Statistics, Trends & Forecasts
Paul Budde

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