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Worldwide BPL market overview 2007-2008
By Paul Budde
A large number of trials have been underway for five years and longer, and BPL is performing well up to standard, when compared with most other technologies. Customer pilots are, of course, tremendously helpful in sorting out problems and finding solutions. After what had been, in some cases, a rather lukewarm level of support from some of the utilities involved, the early results of these trials, and in particular customer response; turned unenthusiastic companies round and a groundswell of support developed from the utilities pushing for a more rapid rollout of services.
The next step is to make the transition from the current trial status to the commercial arena, and this will require the establishment of an appropriate regulatory framework to support the technological developments that are occurring. In general terms, positive developments on that level are taking place around the globe. But as with most new technologies, progress is slow - however full standardisation may occur in 2008. A joint IEEE standards proposal submitted by the HomePlug Powerline Alliance and Panasonic is a positive sign; its aim is to permit interoperability between existing BPL products from both vendors. Large scale rollouts will not occur before full standardisation has taken place.
Although equipment prices have dropped drastically already, the key problem in 2008 continues to remain the high equipment costs and a more competitive price shift will need to take place. On a positive note, there are now much clearer business models for the technology in various other market segments, which will significantly broaden its scope.
The DSM and HomePlug developments will also take a bit of the pressure off BPL. While there is a certain urgency to position it in the broadband access market, the other developments can be managed at a slower pace, as they are more of a value-added nature, to be added to other broadband advances.
Also important here is the fact that these services can probably be sold at higher margins.
Around the world in 2007 some 100 commercial BPL trials were taking place (similar to 2006), with around a third of these under way in the US. We are talking mainly about those based on the new DS2 chipset which was introduced in 2005 (and similar high-speed broadband technologies - 20-45Mb/s).
In the USA both consumer and businesses are driving BPL growth. According to Parks Associates, rural residents are a key to BPL growth as it is often their only option for accessing fixed broadband services. Rural residents which don't have access to DSL or cable - do have access to power lines. On the business side, Park's sees utility companies driving BPL's growth as it gives utilities more information to effectively manage power demand and fix line problems.
|
Year |
Subscriber households (e) (million) |
|
2008 |
0.8 |
|
2009 |
1.0 |
|
2011 |
2.5 |
(Source: BuddeComm based on Parks Associates, 2007)
Research from Instat found that sales of BPL networking equipment worldwide more than doubled in 2007 and predicted substantial growth for the sector in 2008. Instat foresees BPL vendors experiencing increased demand as companies, individuals and governments intensify their focus on reduce energy consumption.
|
Year |
Units sold (million) |
|
2006 |
5.4 |
|
2007 |
>10.8 |
(Source: BuddeComm based on Instat, 2007)
For more information see - 2007 Global BPL - Utilities Moving Towards Broadbanded Smart Grids
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