Africa Mobile Market Overview 1Q 2011

Index

Chart 1 - African Mobile Subscribers 2006-2015F
Chart 2 - Top 10 African Mobile Operators by Subscribers 1Q 2011
Chart 3 - Top 10 African States by Mobile Operators 1Q 2011
Chart 4 - Top 10 African Mobile Operators by Net Additions 1Q 2011
West & Central Africa Telecommunications Market 2Q 2011

Source: Africa & Middle East Telecom-Week

The total number of mobile subscribers in Africa is forecast to reach 800 million by the end of 2015.

Source: Africa & Middle East Telecom-Week

The significance of Nigeria as Africa's most vibrant mobile market is clear, with 3 of the Top 10 mobile operators by subscriber numbers being based there: MTN, Glo Mobile and Airtel. MTN's dominance is also clear: not only is its Nigerian operation the largest on the continent, but its operation in South Africa is ranked sixth.

Source: Africa & Middle East Telecom-Week

Just a few years ago South Africa was the dominant mobile market in Africa, by now Nigeria is the dominant nation with 16 percent of the African market, followed by Egypt with 13 percent.

West & Central Africa Telecommunications Market

Business Monitor in its 'West & Central Africa Telecommunications Report Q2 2011' noted that with regard to the provision of telecommunications services, the greatest subscriber growth and service dynamism in the region is to be found within the mobile telephony sectors. The telecoms markets of the region play host to numerous international strategic investors, including France's Orange (present in Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali and Senegal), Luxembourg's Millicom (in Senegal and the DRC) and Morocco's Maroc Telecom (in Gabon, Mali and Mauritania). Other regional telecoms inventors include South Africa's MTN and Vodacom, Sudan's Sudatel, India's Bharti Airtel and Atlantique Telecom, which is owned by Etisalat of the UAE. Towards the end of this report, we publish profiles on Orange, MTN, Maroc Telecom and Atlantique Telecom, surveying the regional activities of these four operators.

Following forecast revisions, BMI now estimate that seven countries surveyed in this report had a total mobile customer base of 56.45mn and an average mobile penetration rate of 68.7%. Both of these figures are lower than those published in its previous update. The lower figures reflect evidence that some mobile markets - notably those of Mauritania and the DRC - grew more slowly in the last few months of the year than previously thought.

Mobile penetration rates vary considerably from 139% (Gabon) to 18.4% (the DRC) in 2010. Mobile growth rates across the region averaged 24.8% in 2010, indicating the continuation of strong demand for mobile telephony. In the five years to 2015, we predict that the strongest mobile subscriber growth will occur in Senegal, Mali and the DRC. Growth rates of over 70% for all three of these markets are predicted for the 2010 to 2015 period. In Cameroon, growth of almost 58% is predicted for the five years to 2015 while, in Cote d'Ivoire, Mauritania and Gabon, five-year growth rates are expected to lie in the 40-50% range.

Over the next few years, a number of markets are expected to benefit from increased competition. These include Senegal, where it was announced in June 2010 that Nigeria-based Globacom (Glo Mobile) had been issued with a licence to provide mobile services. Cameroon's government has also announced plans to license new operators while, in Gabon and the DRC, the governments are reportedly preparing tenders for the award of mobile 3G network licences.

Although the 2Q 2011 sees further revisions to BMI's mobile subscriber forecasts for most countries in the region, its fixed telephony and internet access forecasts for the seven regional markets remains largely unchanged. The exceptions are Senegal and Mauritania, where revised forecasts incorporate new regulatory data. Generally speaking, the fixed-line and Internet markets of West and Central African remain underdeveloped. Although some fixed-line markets are benefiting from the deployment of fixed wireless technology and are experiencing growth as a result (notably Cameroon and Senegal), most other markets in the region are either stagnant or in a state of decline. Meanwhile, although internet penetration levels are low, internet and broadband service usage is seen as an area with enormous growth potential. At the end of 2010, Senegal and Gabon remained the most advanced markets in terms of the number of Internet users. BMI continue to predict that these two markets will lead our forecasts in the five years to 2015. However, other markets - including Cameroon and Cote d'Ivoire - are expected to benefit from investment in new technologies, especially WiMAX. Over the long term, the region's internet markets are also expected to benefit from access to international submarine cables, such as WACS (West Africa Cable System), which should help lower the cost of Internet access.

Africa and the Middle East saw very strong growth in the 12 months to 31 March 2008. The Top 10 has seen some changes, with the changes involving Zain in Iraq propelling the operator into 6th. place. The top two positions are occupied by Iraq's MCI with 8.21 million net additions just beating MTN's Irancell with 7.95 million. Iraq and Egypt account for six out of the 10 leading operators, with the three leading operators in each market making it into the Top 10 - a remarkable performance. Even more so given the recent entry of Etisalat into the Egyptian market

Source: Africa & Middle East Telecom-Week

Click here for a full analysis of the Africa and Middle East Mobile Telecoms Market 4Q 2008 with subscriber numbers and mobile penetration for all operators and States.

Rank	Name	Operator	4Q07	y-on-y % change
1	South Africa	Vodacom	24,255,000	11%
2	Nigeria	MTN	16,511,000	34%
3	Egypt	MobiNil	15,117,626	63%
4	South Africa	MTN	14,799,000	19%
5	Egypt	Vodafone	13,333,000	53%
6	Algeria	Djezzy GSM	13,382,254	27%
7	Morocco	Maroc	13,327,000	24%
8	Nigeria	Glo Mobile	11,830,000	30%
9	Nigeria	Celtel	11,090,000	73%
10	Kenya	Safaricom	9,200,000	72%
11	Algeria	ATM Mobilis	8,000,000	18%
12	Morocco	Méditel	6,702,000	30%
13	South Africa	Cell-C	4,800,000	45%
14	Algeria	Nedjma	4,535,983	52%
15	Ghana	Spacefon	4,016,000	55%
16	Libya	Libyana	4,000,000	100%
17	Tanzania	Vodacom	3,945,000	33%
18	Sudan	Mobitel	3,833,000	39%
19	Tunisia	Tunisiana	3,651,813	19%
20	Tunisia	Tunisie Telecom	3,608,000	11%
21	Egypt	Etisalat Misr	3,100,000
22	Angola	Unitel	3,306,900	61%
23	Sudan	Sudatel	3,170,000	146%
24	Dem. Rep. of the Congo	Vodacom	3,269,000	40%
25	Cote d'Ivoire	Orange	2,860,407	38%
	Other Africa		75,138,741	57%

3 April 2008: Nigeria gentle edges ahead of South Africa

Nigeria is about to gently nudge South Africa into second place as the African state with the largest number of mobile subscribers.

Figures realeased by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) placed the total active subscriber base at 41.5 million at the end of 2007.

South Africa suffered during the year when Vodacom restated its subscriber numbers, with the removal of inactive accounts, although this was countered by Cell-C who attracted higher levels of new users in the final quarter.

This is not to say that Nigeria has not also had its problems, with the regulator first instructing operators not to sign new clients, and then more recently fining operators for poor service.

According to Blycroft's Mobile Operator Database, if the trend established at the beginning of the year continues, then Nigeria will take the lead position during April.

South Africa has a mobile penetartion of some 92 percent at the end of 4Q 2007, and this is forecast to rise to 98 percent by the end of 2Q 2008. Meanwhile Nigeria had a mobile penetartion rate of only 31 percent at the end of 4Q 2007, highlighting the enormous potential that Nigeria now represents.

Even more remarkable is the fact that less than 10 years ago, Nigeria had just 400,000 lines and one state-owned monopoly operator.

Source: Industry data & estimates © 2008 Blycroft Ltd

Source: Industry data & estimates © 2008 Blycroft Ltd

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