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We have made certain forecast revisions on our Q416 report update to account for changes in the Iraqi telecommunications landscape. The mobile market contracted more than 10% in 2015, largely driven by Islamic State (IS) activity and attacks in various parts of the country. The market posted further contractions in Q116 before returning to growth in Q216. As government forces ramp up and look to drive IS out of controlled zones, we believe there will be further telecom sector losses in 2017 and 2018, with a return to growth expected in 2019. Despite the challenges, we are positive on the long-term growth potential of mobile and 3G services, but remain sceptical of substantial uptake of mobile financial services, given regional trends in the Middle East and North Africa.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
- The mobile market contracted by 10.2% y-o-y in Q415 as the security situation continued to take its toll, with operators losing 3.29mn subscribers in 2015 and another 122,000 in Q116. Market data suggest that the market returned to growth in Q216, adding 388,000 new subscribers. Nevertheless, we hold a subdued outlook for the next three years based upon the prolonged civil conflict in the country.
- Both Zain and Asiacell's revenues showed some signs of recovery in Q116 with the rate of losses slowing down. Take-up of 3G services throughout 2016 may help to further stabilise ARPUs over the coming quarters. Take-up of Mobile Financial Services, launched by both Zain and Asiacell, may, however, be subject to challenges.
The Iraq Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Iraq's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Iraq Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Iraq.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Iraq to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Iraqi telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Iraq's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Iraq.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.