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BMI View: The deployment of next-generation infrastructure is driving usage of premium non-voice services as well as complex, multi-screen converged services in Poland. Orange, Netia and Cyfrowy Polsat are benefiting to varying degrees. Although our outlook on the uptake of 3G/4G services is optimistic , the bids for spectrum in the auctions will temper any return on investment strategies, with a commensurate impact on pricing that will have to be borne by operators and end-users alike .
|Polish Broadband And 3G/4G Subscribers|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, Operators, UKE|
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
The mobile market contracted sharply in H116 as more than 1.8mn subscriptions were shed. Orange and P4 ( Play) performed well, signalling good underlying growth prospects deriving from customer deepening strategies. We forecast 53.423mn mobile subscriptions by 2020.
Mobile expansion is being driven by 3G/4G migration. We forecast 48.364mn subscriptions by 2020, or 90.5% of the overall market, but the rate of growth will depend on operators' capex strategies as outlays on spectrum will weigh on their inclination to invest in networks.