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BMI View: We forecast limited growth prospects in the Dutch mobile market in our latest Q3 2016 report update. The mobile market is saturated and devoid of organic subscriber growth opportunities. 3G/4G uptake has some room for growth out to 2020 but we believe that operators must look to upsell their premium services to low-value clients and to migrate them onto lucrative plans to raise revenues. Furthermore, the launch of the first PVNO by CGI and a Dutch utilities company will lead to increased competition in the Netherland's already thriving M2M market.
|3G/4G to Support Saturated Market|
|Netherlands - Mobile Market Forecasts|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, operators, ACM|
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
Mobile subscriptions declined in Q116, in line with expectations. We forecast 18.07mn subscriptions by end-2016, falling to 17.62mn in 2020. 3G/4G migration will see subscriptions rise from 12.26mn in 2015 to 14.9mn in 2020.
Muted demand for low-capacity wireline broadband will impede broadband market growth, but fibre connections will facilitate uptake of high-value triple- and quad-play services. Subscriptions will stand at 7.7mn in 2020, but will yield higher ARPU.
Launch of first PVNO by BroadForward and CGI in collaboration with a Dutch utilities company will lead to increased competition in M2M segment.
The pending merger between Vodafone and Liberty Global, looking to combine their business units in the country is being deliberated upon by the European Commission. The Commission has stated that it will issue its ruling by mid-July, 2016. The two companies look to form a new 50:50 joint partnership so they can successfully compete with the growing influence of KPN.