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Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021

Fixed network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2016–2021

Market Study
Published: August 2016
Pages: 46 slides
Research from: Analysys Mason
Sector: Networks & Infrastructure

From: GBP 5333.00
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"Two pieces of received opinion urgently need challenging: that fixed data traffic inevitably grows more slowly than mobile; and that it is a proliferation of smaller, portable devices that drive Internet traffic."

The steady migration of broadcast video to multicast and unicast – particularly on connected TVs – is driving such strong traffic growth on fixed broadband networks that we expect growth rates of fixed and mobile to converge. This report analyses the drivers and inhibitors of fixed-line data traffic, and forecasts the volume, type and source of that traffic worldwide, as well as the bandwidths required to support it.

Geographical coverage

The report provides forecasts for the following eight geographical regions.

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

The report provides forecasts for the Nordic region and the following 20 countries.

  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • Germany
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Turkey
  • UK
  • USA

Key metrics

  • Overall national and per broadband (BB) subscriber data, year total and year end
  • Internet, managed IP, multicast data
  • Next-generation access (NGA) and non-NGA split
  • Median usage
  • Fixed—mobile traffic ratios
  • Asymmetry ratios
  • Internet bandwidth per subscriber, average and busy hour
  • Global split by device (TV, mobile device, PC, other)

This report analyses fixed data traffic trends worldwide, and draws out implications for fixed and mobile operators, as well as content players.

It is based on several sources, including:

Analysys Mason’s internal research, including broadband and next-generation access (NGA) forecasts, 4K forecasts, wireless traffic forecasts, Connected Consumer survey

operator and regulator data

ongoing engagement with stakeholders in the fixed telecoms sector.

About this report

CTO and strategy teams in fixed network operators (FNOs)

This report will help them to understand how to tie their NGA conversion (and hence ARPU uplifts) to changes in usage demand, and in emerging markets, to understand how soon patterns of consumption could encourage fixed broadband (FBB) take-up.

CTO and strategy teams in MNOs

The ability to substitute fixed (to gain greater share of wallet) is at the core of mobile revenue growth. MNOs urgently need a holistic fixed—mobile view of data consumption in order to plan for mobile and/or new fixed network investment.

CTO and strategy teams in Content / TV businesses

Rapid shifts to non-linear viewing present uncertainty for the continued use of RF (on unidirectional broadcast networks). More rational use of network options is possible, and spectrum used for RF could be of greater use to MNOs, for example

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