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How much is African wireless spectrum worth? African governments have sold around $15bn worth of wireless spectrum since 1998, in three waves of awards covering 2G, 3G and now, 4G frequencies. By our estimates, Africa is sitting on around $5bn worth of 4G spectrum, and over the next 18 months, markets from Egypt to South Africa, Nigeria, Senegal and others will sell or seek to value a trove of frequencies that will pave the way for next generation digital services.
And yet, even as they seek to precisely assess the value of the 4G spectrum on offer, buyers and sellers alike have surprisingly few independent tools for intra-African spectrum transaction benchmarking and value analysis. This report provides such a tool.
For the Xalam Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report, we have developed what is arguably the most extensive independent, African-focused analysis of 3G and 4G spectrum value available.
We have analyzed 60 spectrum transactions across 20 African markets over the past 10 years (2006-2016), included in around 35 separate processes covering 1100MHz worth of 3G and/or 4G spectrum.
The Xalam Africa 4G Spectrum Value Report assesses the value of various 4G bands in African markets and offers a qualitative and quantitative framework for estimating 4G spectrum value in the African context. In addition, the report provides projected value ranges for upcoming and/or anticipated 4G spectrum auctions, including for markets such as Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt and Senegal. Further, the report explores a range of issues related to 3G and 4G spectrum, from the business feasibility of 4G at current spectrum value points to the future of so-called spectrum asset companies.nb
The insights derived from that effort are distilled in this report, covering critical spectrum value questions and key points, including:
> What is the state of 4G LTE rollout on the African continent? Which spectrum bands dominate?
> Which bands are proving the most valuable in the African context? What is the TDD/FDD split?
> Which African markets have generated in the most in spectrum proceeds?
> What are the key drivers of 4G spectrum value in Africa?
> How does African 4G spectrum value compare to 3G? 2G?
> Why is African 4G spectrum valued higher than 3G spectrum?
> Should the 2.6GHz band be valued as 4G, or as FWA?
> How does African 4G spectrum value compares to 4G transactions in Western Europe?
> What is the estimated value of South Africa’s 4G spectrum (2.6GHz, 700MHz, 800MHz)?
> What is the estimated value of Nigeria’s 4G spectrum (2.6GHz, 700MHz, 800MHz)?
> Did Nigeria get fair value for the 700 MHz sold to MTN Nigeria?
> What is the fair value for upcoming 4G transactions in Senegal, Egypt?
> Did investments in 3G spectrum pay off?
> Are investments in 4G spectrum, at current price points worth it, given the business challenge of monetizing data?
> Who are Africa’s spectrum 4G plays (companies whose primary value lies with their spectrum assets), and are they likely to sell?
The Corporate/Premium version of this report includes a Pivot table covering 2G, 3G and 4G transactions, along with detailed value for each on a Price/MHz/Pop/Year benchmark basis, along with more than 50 supporting charts and data points in Excel format (See Report Specs).
* Corporate Licence buyers can also claim a FREE single-user 12 month subscription to 'Africa & Middle East Telecom-Week' (48-issues).