Need advice? Keen to get the best deal? Call now on +44 (0)1494
The Democratic Republic of the Congo's mobile market continues to show excellent growth prospects and we expect this trend to be ongoing throughout our forecast period. Strong mobile subscriber uptake is partly due to an increase in competition, which has led to aggressive network development and service pricing strategies. BMI believes that the recent contraction in the size of the Congolese mobile customer base was largely due to inactive subscription discounting as the losses primarily came from the prepaid segment. However, we believe that limited subscriber uptake in rural areas means that subscriptions growth is likely to remain strong for the duration of our forecast period to 2020. Burundi's mobile market is viewed as one of the most competitive in the region, with four active mobile operators serving a population of around 10mn. Despite this, low income levels, low urbanisation rates and limited funds for network expansion into underserved areas are among the major factors for the slow growth of the country's mobile sector.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
We estimate that the Republic of the Congo's mobile market had 4.489mn customers by the end of 2015. This was equivalent to a penetration rate of 97.16%, down from 102% at the end of 2014. We now predict that the number of mobile subscriptions will reach 4.6mn at the end of 2020, a penetration rate of 87.5%. We expect the number of 3G subscriptions in Congo-Brazzaville to reach 1.84mn in 2020, equivalent to 39.9% of the total mobile subscriber base.
The DRC's mobile penetration rate moved past the 61% mark at the end of 2015, based on a total of 47.2mn mobile subscribers. We now expect it to reach 80.7% in 2020, based on a subscriber base of 72.8mn mobile customers. We estimate there were around 3.47mn 3G subscriptions by the end of 2015. Our forecast anticipates this number to rise to 18.2mn by 2020, equivalent to 25% of the mobile subscriber base.
We now estimate that Burundi's mobile market grew by just over 80% y-o-y in 2015 to reach 5.575mn subscriptions. As a result of the stronger growth trend witnessed in 9M15 we have once again revised our mobile subscriber forecast for Burundi, now predicting that subscriptions will reach 10.58mn in 2020.
|DRC Subscriber Base To Almost Treble In Size|
|DRC, Congo-Brazzaville & Burundi Mobile Market Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Operators, BMI|
The Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep., Burundi's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Congo-Brazzaville, Congo, Dem. Rep. and Burundi Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep., Burundi.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep., Burundi to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Congolese, Congolese, Burundian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep., Burundi's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Congo, Congo, Dem. Rep., Burundi.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.