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BMI View: Rwanda has a competitive mobile telephony market with three network operators, MTN, Tigo and Airtel helping to drive subscriber growth. In addition, growing demand for data services and the availability of new low-cost internet-enabled devices should positively impact on 3G and 4G subscriber uptake, as well as the growth of data revenues. We expect Rwanda's internet sector to benefit from operator investments in wireless data networks and new investment in FTTH infrastructure. Over our forecast period we expect Rwanda's internet sector to benefit from government investment in terrestrial fibre-optic and LTE networks.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
In the first nine months of 2015 the Rwandan mobile market saw a net increase of 763,000 subscribers. This is based on data reported by MTN and Tigo, as well as the regulator RURA. We estimate that the total number of mobile subscriptions reached 8.79mn by the end of 2015, equivalent to a penetration rate of 75.7%. We expect the Rwandan mobile market to maintain positive growth throughout our forecast period, through to 2020, due to strong competition between MTN, Tigo and Airtel, as well as an expanding economy.
By the end of 2020 we expect the number of mobile subscriptions to rise to 11.26mn. Growth across the market as a whole will be driven by competition between the three network operators and by the increased availability of new data services and internet-connected devices. Although mobile average revenues per user (ARPUs) are currently falling, we expect the decline to level off and trend towards positive growth on the back of the growing uptake of mobile data services.
We maintain a positive growth outlook for Rwanda's broadband sector, based on government investment in terrestrial fibre-optic infrastructure and operator investment in LTE networks. The government's sponsorship of a national network will reduce deployment costs for individual operators, thus enabling them to offer services at more affordable prices. By 2020 we predict there will be 775,000 broadband accesses, up from 366,000 at the end of 2015.
|Organic Growth Set To Slow Just As 3G/4G Subscriptions Increase Market Share|
|Rwanda Mobile Market Forecast|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Operators, BMI|
The Rwanda Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Rwanda's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Rwanda Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Rwanda.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Rwanda to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Rwandan telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Rwanda's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Rwanda.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.