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The Romanian telecom market has been affected by the difficult macroeconomic situation over the past few years. In 2013, we expect it to decline 0.3% in local currency terms, driven by disconnections of fixed traditional telephone lines and the effects of new voice termination rates. Looking forward, we expect Romania's telecom market revenue to grow at an average rate of around 3%, propelled by the uptake of data services and the deployment of LTE services.
Introduction and Landscape
In 2013 the Romanian telecom market will generate a total of RON 14.3bn (US$4.2bn) in service revenue, a decline of 0.3% year on year in local currency terms. We expect Romania's telecom market to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% (again, in local currency) between 2013 and 2018, reaching RON 16.4bn ($5.1bn) in 2018. Growth will be driven by an economic recovery and stimulated by operators' investments in network upgrades in order to accommodate data demand. The top growth segments will be fixed and mobile data, boosted by multiplay service uptake. We expect the new 4G licenses will further assist the strong uptake of mobile data services, in particular as three mobile operators (Orange, Vodafone and Cosmote) out of the five that acquired licenses already offer 4G service. We expect mobile data services to grow at a CAGR of 10.9% in local currency terms over the forecast period and generate a cumulative service revenue opportunity of RON 19.1bn ($5.8bn) over the same period.