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3Q10 Malaysia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010 – 2014: Malaysia to have 43 million mobile subscriber connections in 2014 with Maxis taking market share of 41.5%

3Q10 Malaysia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2010  2014: Malaysia to have 43 million mobile subscriber connections in 2014 with Maxis taking market share of 41.5%

Market Study
Published: August 2010
Pages: 118
Research from: ie market research
Sector: Mobile

From: GBP 312.50
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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Malaysia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Malaysian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2012. Operators covered for Malaysia include: Maxis Mobile Services Sdn. Bhd., Celcom (Malaysia) Berhad, and DiGi Telecommunications Sdn. Bhd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Malaysia's mobile operator space
+12.4% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2010

• Subscriber growth in the Malaysian wireless market remains strong. The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010 was 12.4%, down from 13.5% in 1Q.2009.
• At the operator level, Celcom enjoyed the fastest subscriber growth among operators in 1Q.2010. Celcom's subscriber growth (YoY) in 1Q.2010 was 13.1%, down from 21.2% in 1Q.2009.
• Subscriber growth rates (YoY) at Maxis and DiGi were 12.6% and 11.1% respectively in 1Q.2010.

ARPU levels continue to decline in Malaysia
-2.4% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2010

• The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -2.4% (YoY) to reach MYR 53 in 1Q.2010.
• Monthly ARPU at Maxis was MYR 52 in 1Q.2010, down -3.7% from MYR 54 in 1Q.2009.
• ARPU growth rates (YoY) at Celcom and DiGi were also negative at -0.8% and -5.4% respectively in 1Q.2010.

Minutes of Use per Subscriber increased across operators in the latest quarter
+3.7% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2010

• The industry MOU/Sub was 197 minutes per month in 1Q.2010, up +3.7% from 190 minutes in 1Q.2009.
• DiGi leads Malaysia’s operators with its average MOU/Sub of 227 minutes per month, and MOU/Sub growth (YoY) of 7.1% in 1Q.2010. MOU/Sub at Maxis and Celcom were 173 and 202 minutes and per month respectively in 1Q.2010.

Positive EBITDA growth at all of Maxis, Celcom and DiGi
+8.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2010

• The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) increased from -0.8% in 1Q.2009 to 8.2% in 1Q.2010.
• At the operator level, Celcom enjoyed the highest EBITDA growth at 16.4% in 1Q.2010, up from 8.1% in 1Q.2009.
• EBITDA growth at Maxis also increased from -4.8% in 1Q.2009 to 3.5% in 1Q.2010.

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber connections in Malaysia to reach 43 million in 2014

• Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that the number of total mobile subscriber connections in Malaysia will increase from 30.1 million in 2009 to 43.2 million in 2014.
• Our forecasting model predicts that the number of subscriber connections at Maxis and Celcom will be approximately 17.9 million and 14.7 million respectively by the end of 2014.

Maxis's market share to remain at 41% - 42% over the next several years

• Our model forecasts that Maxis will maintain a subscriber market share of 41% - 42% over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014.
• On the other hand, we expect that DiGi will see its share of subscribers decline from 25.6% in 2009 to 24.5% in 2014.

Declining trend in ARPUs will continue over the next five years in Malaysia's mobile operator space

• Our model predicts that all operators will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years.
• We forecast that Celcom's monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 55.80 in 2009 to approximately MYR 49 in 2014.
• We expect that DiGi's monthly ARPU will decline from MYR 54.50 in 2009 to about MYR 50 in 2014.

Maxis will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Celcom and DiGi over the next five years

• We expect that Maxis's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain at about 49% over the next eight quarters.
• Profitability of Celcom and DiGi will remain lower than Maxis's, and we forecast that EBITDA margins of both Celcom and DiGi will remain in the range of 43% - 45% over the next two years.


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