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The telecom market in Uganda generated $638m in 2009, almost exclusively through mobile services. We expect fixed broadband services to join the mobile segment as a strong driver of growth as the new undersea cables land in the coasts of East Africa and the terrestrial fiber rings start reaching the landlocked country. Overall, we believe that telecom revenue in Uganda will grow at an impressive CAGR of 11.5% between 2010 and 2015. During this period, broadband Internet revenue will increase at a CAGR of 46.5% from $34m in 2010 to $229m in 2015.
The growth of the Ugandan telecom market depends much on improvements in infrastructure. Once the implementation problems with the domestic fiber networks are solved and the second phase of the national backbone initiative accelerates, the operators will be able to reduce their transmission costs. With these developments, we anticipate a decline in prices toward more affordable levels. We expect a similar pattern in the mobile data segment, where better deals will lead to increasing penetration, which in turn will contribute to rapid growth of 22.5% CAGR between 2010 and 2015.