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We estimate that the Nigerian telecom market generated $8.2bn in service revenue by year-end 2009, a 7.7% year-on-year decline (in US dollar terms). Since liberalization of the market in 2003, the telecom industry has experienced high growth rates, fueled by several new entrants and the launch of mobile value-added and broadband services. With a large population of about 150m and mobile penetration at just 48.9% by year-end 2009, the Nigerian market still holds tremendous opportunity for growth.
Mobile operators are making significant inroads rolling out infrastructure to improve coverage and quality, hence driving subscription growth and usage. We expect growth of total market services revenue to stabilize over the next five years at an 8.9% CAGR. Pay-TV, fixed VoIP, broadband Internet and mobile data are anticipated to be the fastest growth segments, with a CAGR of at least 20%. Mobile and fixed voice, although growing more slowly, will dominate the balance of services revenue due to their relatively important weight in the overall Nigerian communications market.