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Japan: Aggressive 4G Ramp-Up to Drive Telecom Revenue Growth
The Japanese telecom market generated $144.6bn in service revenue in 2009, making it the largest market in Asia-Pacific and the second largest globally. It accounts for roughly one-third of Asia-Pacific’s total telecommunications service revenue. Over the next five years, we expect the Japanese telecommunications services market to grow at a CAGR of 3.5%, reaching $171.9bn by 2014. This growth will be led by the migration to higher speed broadband connections over fiber and increased adoption of sophisticated mobile data services enabled by 4G networks. In 2011, mobile data will overtake mobile voice to become the largest generator of service revenues in Japan. By 2014, mobile data services will account for 57% of total mobile services and 31% of total service revenue in Japan. It is important to note that our base-case forecast assumes that NTT remains a single entity and is not divided into several pieces. In the event that the regulator moves forward with plans to divide NTT into several distinct companies, we will revise our forecasts accordingly.