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Asia Pacific TV: 14th edition :: Informa Telecoms & Media
Market Study
Published: June 2010
Pages: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 895.00 Buy Now!
Research from: Informa Telecoms and Media
Sector: Media & Entertainment
“At end-2015, the Asia Pacific region will have more than 400 million digital homes; triple the end-2009 figure.
Adam Thomas, Research Manager, Informa Telecoms & Media”
Our analysts have just completed the first of our market-leading set of regional TV market forecasts and analysis. These look forward over the next five years and provide a valuable insight into the varying patterns of change within the TV markets of each country.
Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts show that the Asia Pacific region will have 784 million TV households by 2015 and pay TV will increase to more than 400 million subscribers by that time. This research report will give you access to our highly granular TV forecasts and in-depth analysis of all the important developments in the Asia Pacific broadcast markets.
What’s new in this year’s edition:
• Comprehensive forecasts to 2015 – including penetration rates for triple-play and new operator specific forecasts
• Secondary set analysis – for a full picture of multichannel penetration
• The most up-to-date, crucial information – enabling you to maximise your opportunities within the region
• Market movements – new quick guides to the key developments in each country
• Country-by-country analysis – for 16 key territories, including the Indian and Chinese markets
• TV sets per household – what is the full extent of your target market?
This research is an essential resource for:
• TV operators – learn more about how the experience of Asia Pacific TV can fit into your business strategy
• TV set manufacturers – find out where new technologies are gaining traction
• Investment Banks – gain valuable insights into which countries will enable you to maximise your investment opportunities
• TV content owners – discover the strategies your competitors are using and find out valuable insights into Asia Pacific viewing patterns
• Analysts, legal and financial – use our forecasts, historic data and independent analysis to build your knowledge of this region and to identify where your own expert knowledge may be required
• Broadcast technology companies – as a fast-growing region, the Asia Pacific offers important new revenue streams.
The Asia Pacific region will have 784 million TV households by 2015, an increase of more than 94 million compared to 2009. TV households have an average 1.4 TV sets per home, leading to well over 1.1 billion sets across the region by 2015.
Of the 784 million total, 43% will subscribe to cable (both analog and digital). This puts it well clear of the second-placed platform - DTH with a 9% share, which is being boosted by strong growth in India. Some 33% of TV households will take only analog terrestrial signals by 2015. These 259 million homes show that subscription and digital systems will still have plenty of room for growth beyond the forecast period.
Pay TV will have more than 400 million subscribers by 2015, generating revenues in excess of US$40 billion. In addition to good progress from the regional giants China and India, strong pay TV subscriber growth will also be experienced in emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia.
Despite lower pay TV subscriber growth than most of its regional neighbors, Japan?s higher ARPU level means it remains dominant in revenue terms, accounting for 31% of the region?s pay TV revenues in 2009.
This share will fall to 29% in 2015, mainly at the expense of China, which is catching it up fast and will be just behind, also with a 29% share, in 2015 (from 20% in 2009).
The region's big success story of recent years has been the growth of pay DTH services in India. India overtook Japan as the region?s leading DTH market in 2008 and by 2015 will account for 63% of the region's DTH subscribers. This trend is reflected in Informa?s operator forecasts for 2009-2015, with five Indian DTH operators expected to add more than 20 million subscribers between them in that period – led by Reliance with a 6 million increase.
There are increasingly positive signs for digital TV in the region. Competition between the platforms is intensifying – which has pushed digital upgrades up the agenda of many operators. Informa Telecoms & Media is therefore forecasting that a 21% digital TV penetration rate at end-2009 will increase to 54% by end-2015. By 2015, digital penetration will have reached 100% in four markets, with another four expected to have achieved a penetration rate of 70% or more.
Despite this generally positive picture, digital upgrades will not be easy to achieve in some markets. In the cable sector in particular, subscribers are taking some convincing of the need to upgrade from analog to digital. China?s recent more conservative approach to media reform has also continued, meaning that the market will take some time to reach its potential. While the Chinese government has become more cautious on some issues, such as DTH roll out, its proactive approach to converting analog signals to digital is more positive. It is also experiencing significant IPTV growth and by 2015 is expected to account for 45% of the region's IPTV homes.
Broadband network upgrades in some territories make IPTV well-placed to become a significant rival to cable and DTH, although it will not be a ubiquitous success. A lack of compelling content, plus insufficient network capacity, will hold back IPTV from greater growth. This environment will often restrict it to be marketed as a 'free' add-on service within a multi-play bundle.
One of the advantages of a relatively late move towards digital conversion is that the region has not had to take risks with untried technologies or business models, allowing nations elsewhere to learn these lessons for it. However, several Asian countries have well-established electronics manufacturers and these companies are keen to develop proprietary hardware and software not only for their domestic markets but also for the lucrative export sector.
China overtook Japan as the region?s digital leader in 2007 and by end-2009 took 46% of the regional total.
The sheer size of China will see it become an even-more dominant force and by 2015 China will account for more than half (55%) of the region?s digital homes. India will take 20% and Japan 9%, leaving only 16% - or 63 million – for the other countries in the region. South Korea will rank fourth and contribute 14 million digital TV homes – or 3% of the region?s total.
Average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) will increase in the short-term, as the number of services on offer – and the subsequent tiering of channels and introduction of PPV/VOD packages – rises. But ARPU will start to decline in some categories towards the end of the forecast period, with the impact of dual- and triple-play bundles pushing down prices (see fig. 3). Regional ARPU will remain relatively low, but this reflects the major influence that India, and particularly China, (where subscription fees are low) have on the region.
AUSTRALIA TV UPDATE
The number of pay TV subscribers continues to rise, with Foxtel still comfortably leading Austar. However, online and IP-based services may disrupt the pay sector – Telstra has launched a download-based offering, Fetch TV is set to launch IPTV with local ISPs, and several other companies have introduced online TV services Telstra faces government pressure to divest its cable TV holdings and to sell its stake in Foxtel. Network Seven and Liberty Global have expressed interest in acquiring its Foxtel stake Foxtel launched HD services in June 2008 and Austar followed suit in November 2009. All national networks are required to broadcast a portion of their content in HD Interest in DTT remains strong, with 61% of TV households using the platform by end-2009. A free satellite service will be launched to fill gaps in coverage. All the national networks are expanding their digital portfolios.
1.1 Overview
The Department of Broadband Communications & the Digital Economy put pay TV penetration at 33% in early 2010. Three conglomerates dominate the pay TV sector: Publishing and Broadcasting (PBL), News Corp. and Telstra. Each company has interests in terrestrial TV, pay TV and telecoms. The three companies are also partners in pay TV market leader Foxtel.
Most pay TV subs take DTH, as the cable sector is small and IPTV is yet to launch. However, the market dynamic could change in 2010. Telstra has tentatively entered the IP-based TV sector by launching a download-based service T-Box in December 2009. It has so far stopped short of moving towards full-IPTV in order to avoid angering its Foxtel co-owner News Corp.
Malaysian-backed Fetch TV, on the other hand, has no such loyalties and therefore looks set to push a highly competitive IPTV service. In partnership with local ISPs, it is reported to be going after crucial content, such as the Australian Rules Football (AFL) contract for 2011-2016.
In September 2009, the government announced its intention to split dominant telco Telstra into two separate entities to increase competition. Telstra was informed it would have to divest itself of its cable TV holding and separate its wholesale and retail businesses.
While the reforms are technically voluntary, Telstra faces stiff penalties for refusing to cooperate; including the government preventing the company from acquiring new wireless broadband spectrum. As a final assurance for compliance, the government has threatened to, if necessary, pass legislation forcing the reform on Telstra.
A relaxation in media legislation in 2007 ended foreign and cross media ownership restrictions. Previously a free-to-air channel owner could not also control more than 15% of a newspaper in the same city, and vice versa. Foreign companies were restricted to a 15% stake in a broadcaster or 25% of a newspaper. The relaxations allow media companies to own up to two of the three media assets (TV, radio or print) in the same region.
Another review of the terrestrial sector is set for 2011. The government is concerned that, with content moving online, “many regulations are out of date already and others soon will be”.
Those with interests in pay TV continue to voice their opposition to the „anti-siphoning? list, which prevents pay TV providers from securing exclusive rights to listed sports events. News Corp. has called the anti-siphoning regulations a “protection racket” for the commercial networks. News Corp has also criticized the government's decision to allow the commercial networks to offer one extra DTT channel, thus creating more competition for Foxtel.
While the anti-siphoning list will continue, one change to it could benefit Foxtel. Terrestrial broadcasters can still acquire rights to major sporting events before pay TV operators, but the 2007 regulation changes introduced a 'use-it-or-lose-it' clause to prevent the terrestrials from buying rights on the list but not fully screening them.
DTT was in 61% of households (including homes using it as a secondary service) by end-2009. Uptake was boosted when services relaunched under the Freeview banner in November 2008.
About the analysts
Adam Thomas, Media Research Manager, Informa Telecoms & Media
Adam Thomas is the Media Research Manager within Informa Telecoms & Media’s Industry Research division, responsible for Informa’s output in the TV sector. His team is responsible for much of the content on the TV Intelligence Centre. Adam has published research on the TV sectors in Asia Pacific, Latin America, North America, the Middle East, Africa and across Europe.
Ted Hall, Senior Research Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media
Ted Hall is a Senior Research Analyst in Informa Telecoms & Media’s TV reports team. He has analysed all aspects of the TV industry and has covered countries in all the geographical regions. His areas of expertise cover some of the world’s most active and lucrative markets, such as the US, UK and Japan.
Simon Molony, TV Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media
Simon Molony joined Informa Telecoms & Media as a TV analyst in 2009. He writes country profiles for the TV Intelligence Centre, focusing primarily to date on the Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America markets. He also contributes to the Digital TV and Television Business International yearbooks.
Adrian Reynolds, Media Research Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media
Adrian Reynolds joined Informa Telecoms & Media in February 2010 as a Media Research Analyst. His primary area of research is the TV industry, covering topics including cable, satellite, IPTV, mobile TV, HDTV and TV advertising. Additionally, he focuses on region and country-specific organizations and TV networks. His research covers a wide range of countries providing updated information for the Intelligence Centre, Digital TV and Television Business International yearbooks.