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Home > Market Research > Handsets & Devices > Future Mobile Handsets: 11th Edition: Worldwide Market Analysis, Strategic Oulook & Forecasts to 2014
Download your extract from Future Mobile Handsets here.
New for this edition:
> Extensive sales and technology forecasts
> Detailed market segmentation analysis
> Focus on key components and systems
> Revealing company profiles
> Exclusive industry survey findings
> and much more....
Challenging times:
Although the economic downturn has impacted on handset replacements, reducing sales to single-digit growth for the first time since 2001, the market is still massive with over 1 billion units sold annually. To survive the global recession handset manufacturers have had to scale back the size of their portfolios and look at ways to differentiate their products and cut costs.
Having a source you can rely on for the latest industry analysis and forecasts has never been so crucial. With a proven track record for over a decade, the 11th edition of Future Mobile Handsets will help you to position your company and products to compete in 2010 and beyond.
Over 350-pages packed with:
> Expert analysis – tracking trends in segmentation, technologies, components and features
> Forecasts to 2014 – 60 extensive datasets by region and technology
> Regional & country profiles – the state-of-the-industry worldwide
> Exclusive industry survey – very latest handset market opinion
> Company profiles & strategies – Over 25 major players evaluated across the value chain.....
All the key issues answered:
> Who are the major players in the handset value chain and why?
> What are the latest segmentation trends and strategies?
> Where could opportunities from the global downturn emerge?
> Which features, technology and software are offering a competitive edge?
> Just how much has the global recession affected the outlook for handset sales
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Table of Contents
C H A P T E R 1
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y . . 1
Cellular network technologies 2
Figure 1.1: Mobile network generations . . 3
Global mobile subscribers 4
Figure 1.2: Global mobile subscribers, 2008-2014 4
Handset market trends and outlook . . 5
Figure 1.3: Global mobile handset sales, by region, 2008-2014 6
Figure 1.4: Global mobile handset sales, by technology generation groups, 2008-2014 . 7
The evolving handset value chain 7
Figure 1.5: Global, lead player in the mobile handset value web, 2009 and 2014 . 8
Manufacturing trends and production 8
Vendor strategies . . 10
Figure 1.6: Global handset sales and market share, by top vendors: 2008 and 1H09 . 11
Handset features 11
Figure 1.7: Global handset features penetration, 2001-2014 . 13
Mobile handset OSs and smartphones . . 13
Figure 1.8: Market segmentation of OSs for mobile devices . 15
Figure 1.9: Global smartphone sales, 2008-2014 16
Hardware technology 16
Trends in the BOM . . 19
Trends in ASPs . 20
The value of the mobile handsets market 21
C H A P T E R 2
I N T R O D U C T I O N T O T H E M O B I L E C O M M U N I C A T I O N S I N D U S T R Y 23
Cellular network technologies 23
Figure 2.1: Mobile network generations and deployment timelines 23
Figure 2.2: Mobile network generations . 24
Digital 3G networks . 25
Figure 2.3: Mobile technology evolution paths . . 25
Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) . 26
3GPP2 . 26
Digital 3.5G networks . . 26
High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) 27
Figure 2.4: Global, commercial HSDPA deployments, June 2009 27
High Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA) . . 28
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Revision A . 28
Figure 2.5: Global CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Revision A deployments, as at June 2009 29
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Revision B . 29
Time Division CDMA (TD-CDMA) 30
Time Division Synchronous CDMA (TD-SCDMA) . . 30
Beyond 3.5G 31
HSPA+ . 31
Long-Term Evolution 31
Figure 2.6: Comparison of Evolved HSPA and LTE . 32
4G . 32
Global and regional market analysis . . 33
Figure 2.7: Global mobile subscribers, 2008-2014 . . 34
Figure 2.8: Global mobile subscriber* penetration, by region, 2008-2014 35
Figure 2.9: Global top 10 investors and operators by proportionate equity subscriptions,
by region, March 2009 . 36
Figure 2.10: Global mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2008-2014 37
North America . . 38
Figure 2.11: North America mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2008-2014 39
Latin America . . 40
Figure 2.12: Latin America mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2008-2014 40
Asia Pacific . 41
Figure 2.13: Asia Pacific mobile subscribers, by technology generation,2008-2014 42
Europe . 43
Figure 2.14: Europe mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2008-2014 44
Africa and the Middle East . . 45
Figure 2.15: Africa and the Middle East mobile subscribers, by technology generation, 2008-2014 45
Mobile prepaid services . 47
Figure 2.16: Global prepaid penetration of the mobile customer base, by region, 2003-1Q09 . 47
C H A P T E R 3
T H E M O B I L E H A N D S E T M A R K E T 49
Global and regional market analysis . . 50
Figure 3.1: Global mobile handset sales, by region, 2008-2014 . . 52
Figure 3.2: Global mobile handset sales, by region and technology, 2008-2014 . . 53
North America . . 67
Figure 3.3: North America mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 67
US . 68
Figure 3.4: US mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 68
Canada 69
Figure 3.5: Canada mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 70
Latin America . . 70
Figure 3.6: Latin America mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 72
Brazil . . 72
Figure 3.7: Brazil mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 73
Asia Pacific 73
Figure 3.8: Asia Pacific mobile handset sales, by sub-region, 2008-2014 . 74
Figure 3.9: Asia Pacific mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 75
Japan . . 75
Figure 3.10: Japan mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 76
China . 77
Figure 3.11: China mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 78
South Korea 79
Figure 3.12: South Korea mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 80
India . . 81
Figure 3.13: India mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 82
Rest of Asia Pacific, developed . 82
Figure 3.14: Rest of Asia Pacific, developed, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 83
Rest of Asia Pacific, developing . 83
Figure 3.15: Rest of Asia Pacific, developing, mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 84
Europe . 84
Figure 3.16: Europe mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 85
Western Europe . 86
Figure 3.17: Western Europe mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . 86
Eastern Europe . 87
Figure 3.18: Eastern Europe mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 87
Russia . 88
Figure 3.19: Russia mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 88
Africa and the Middle East . . 89
Figure 3.20: Africa and the Middle East mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 89
Africa . . 90
Figure 3.21: Africa mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . . 91
Middle East 92
Figure 3.22: Middle East mobile handset sales, by technology group, 2008-2014 . 92
Technology market analysis 93
Figure 3.23: Global mobile handset sales, by technology generation groups, 2008 94
Figure 3.24: Global mobile handset sales, by main technology family, 2008-2014 . . 95
GSM family . 95
Figure 3.25: Global GSM family mobile handset sales, by technology, 2008-2014 . . 96
CDMA family 97
Figure 3.26: Global CDMA family mobile handset sales, by technology, 2008-2014 . 97
TD-SCDMA . 98
Figure 3.27: China TD-SCDMA mobile handset sales, 2008-2014 . 98
LTE . 99
Figure 3.28: Global LTE mobile handset sales, by region, 2010-2014 . . 99
Replacement handset markets 100
Figure 3.29: Global replacement handset sales in the year as a percentage of total, 2008-2014 . . 102
Figure 3.30: Estimated timeframe for replacement handset sales, by sub-region . 102
The second-hand mobile handset market 103
C H A P T E R 4
V A L U E C H A I N A N D P R O D U C T I O N . 105
Mobile handset value chain evolution . . 105
Figure 4.1: The traditional mobile handset value chain 105
Figure 4.2: The mobile handset value web . 106
Figure 4.3: Global, lead player in the mobile handset value web, 2009 and 2014 . . 108
Vendor differentiation . 109
Figure 4.4: Global, importance of factors to ensure vendor success
in the mobile handset market by 2014 . 110
Technology leadership . 110
Figure 4.5: Global, rating of technology components that will influence
the success of handset devices by 2014 . 111
The importance of brands . 111
Figure 4.6: Global, rating of companies most likely to have influence over
branding of handset devices in 2014 . . 112
Applications available . 112
Figure 4.7: Global, rating of aspects of mobile applications that will influence
the success of handset devices by 2014 . 113
Handset manufacturing trends 113
Figure 4.8: Handset manufacturing approaches and trends . 118
Independent Design Houses 119
Original Design Manufacturers . 119
EMS providers . 120
Case studies . . 120
Arima Communications . . 120
Compal Communications . 121
Foxconn International Holdings 122
Flextronics 124
Figure 4.9: Flextronics handset production capabilities . 125
Handset production 125
Selected vendors . . 126
Nokia . 126
Samsung . 126
LG 127
Motorola . . 127
By geography . 128
Handset and device quality control processes . 129
Figure 4.10: Outline of mobile handset quality control processes 130
Handset specification . 130
Component qualification . . 130
Conformance, IOT and certification 131
Other quality control processes 131
The evolving mobile handsets distribution and retail supply chain . . 132
Evolution of distribution . . 132
Traditional network 132
Distribution network evolution . 132
Retail segmentation . . 133
Figure 4.11: Retail segmentation . . 133
Figure 4.12: Mobile retail segmentation 134
Mobile retail - sectors . 134
Future market landscape . . 135
Figure 4.13: Evolved distribution and retail network . . 135
Channel management . 136
C H A P T E R 5
M A R K E T S E G M E N T A T I O N 137
Introduction . 137
New challenges in a maturing market . 138
Figure 5.1: Global, handset sales, 1998-2009 . 138
Strategic implications . 138
Figure 5.2: Strategic choices in a maturing market . 139
Consumer-focused segmentation . 140
Figure 5.3: Consumer segmentation criteria 140
Figure 5.4: Consumer segmentation principles . 141
Lifestyle segmentation . 141
Figure 5.5: Mobile handset segmentation by consumer lifestyle . . 142
Leisure/entertainment . 142
Enterprise . 144
Design 145
Demographic-influenced handsets . 146
Multi-function segment 146
Conclusion 146
Life-stage segmentation . . 147
Figure 5.6: Examples of mobile operator consumer segmentation 148
Evolution of consumer handset requirements . . 148
Figure 5.7: Changes in consumer requirements for mobile handsets . 150
Product-focused segmentation 151
Figure 5.8: Average selling price and minimum selling price for handsets,
by feature set, 2008 and 2014 . 151
Three main categories . 152
Basic phones . 152
Low-feature phones 153
Feature-rich phones . . 154
Global mobile handset sales, forecasts by technology segmentation 155
Figure 5.9: Global mobile handset sales, by technology segmentation, 2008-2014 . . 156
Future technology segmentation 156
Figure 5.10: Evolving mobile handset segmentation, 2003-2014 157
Other connected computing devices 158
Mobile handset vendor segmentation strategies 159
Figure 5.11: Comparison of handset shipment volumes vs. number of new
handsets launched, 2007, 2008 and 1H09 161
Industry Survey 162
Figure 5.12: How important do you think the following handset market segments/product
types will be in your region during the next two years? . 162
Ultra-low-cost / low-cost 3G . . 163
Figure 5.13: Relative strength of selected vendors in the ultra-low-cost / low-cost 3G segment 163
Low-feature multimedia . . 164
Figure 5.14: Relative strength of selected vendors in the low-feature multimedia segment 165
Feature-rich multimedia . . 165
Figure 5.15: Relative strength of selected vendors in the feature-rich multimedia segment 165
Open OS . . 166
Figure 5.16: Relative strength of selected vendors in the open OS segment . . 166
Mobile Internet 167
Figure 5.17: Relative strength of selected vendors in the mobile Internet segment 167
Touchscreen . . 168
Figure 5.18: Relative strength of selected vendors in the touchscreen segment . 168
Views on prospects of feature-rich vs. open OS handsets . . 168
Figure 5.19: Prospects for feature-rich vs. open OS handsets 171
Nokia . 171
Samsung . 172
Figure 5.20: Samsung customer and handset segmentation . 173
LG 173
Motorola . . 174
Figure 5.21: Motorola product franchises . . 175
Sony Ericsson . 175
Figure 5.22: Sony Ericsson product segmentation . . 176
C H A P T E R 6
H A N D S E T V E N D O R S T R A T E G I E S . . 177
Handset market overview . 177
Handset ASP . . 177
Figure 6.1: ASP for the Top Five handset vendors and weighted average, 2004-1H09 . . 178
Likely events . . 178
Figure 6.2: Industry Survey: What level of likelihood do you expect the following criteria
to occur over the next five years? 179
Diversification . 179
Figure 6.3: Comparison of the Top Five handset vendors: level of diversification based
total group revenue, 2007 and 2008 . . 180
Market share . . 180
Figure 6.4: Global handset sales and market share, by top vendors: 2007, 2008 and 1H09 . 181
Figure 6.5: Industry Survey: Expected change in the combined market share of the Top Five . 182
Figure 6.6: Industry Survey: What will be the key factors behind any change in this Top Five share? . 183
Nokia 183
Company overview . 183
Figure 6.7: Nokia handset shipments, ASP and operating margin, 2004-1H09 . 184
Product portfolio . . 185
Figure 6.8: Nokia devices: penetration of key features: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 1H09 186
Strategy . . 186
Samsung 188
Company overview . 188
Figure 6.9: Samsung, shipments, ASP and operating margin, 2004-1H09 . 189
Product portfolio . . 190
Figure 6.10: Samsung devices: penetration of key features: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 1H09 191
Strategy . . 191
LG 193
Company overview . 193
Figure 6.11: LG, shipments, ASP and operating margin, 2004-1H09 . . 193
Product portfolio . . 194
Figure 6.12: LG devices: penetration of key features: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 1H09 . . 195
Strategy . . 195
Sony Ericsson . . 198
Company overview . 198
Figure 6.13: Sony Ericsson, shipments, ASP and operating margin, 2004-1H09 198
Product portfolio . . 199
Figure 6.14: Sony Ericsson devices: penetration of key features: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 1H09 200
Strategy . . 200
Motorola . 203
Company overview . 203
Figure 6.15: Motorola shipments, ASP and operating margin, 2004-1H09 . 203
Product portfolio . . 204
Figure 6.16: Motorola devices: penetration of key features: 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 1H09 204
Strategy . . 206
Focus . 206
Improve product portfolio . . 207
Reduce costs . 208
Content and applications . 208
Figure 6.17: SWOT analysis of the Top Five vendors . . 209
Smaller mobile handset vendors (outside the top five) 214
Apple . 216
Figue 6.18: Apple iPhones, 3Q08-2Q09 . . 217
HTC . . 218
Figure 6.19: HTC, selected handsets, 3Q08-2Q09 . 219
Huawei 220
Figure 6.20: Huawei, selected handsets, 3Q08-2Q09 . . 221
Sharp . 221
Figure 6.21: Sharp, selected handsets, 3Q08-2Q09 222
ZTE 223
Figure 6.22: ZTE, selected ZTE handsets, 3Q08-2Q09 224
Kyocera 224
Figure 6.23: Kyocera, selected handsets, 3Q08-2Q09 . . 225
Research in Motion (RIM) . . 225
Figure 6.24: RIM, Blackberry handset launches, 3Q08-2Q09 . 227
C H A P T E R 7
H A N D S E T F E AT U R E S . . 229
Mobile handset feature set roadmap . 229
Figure 7.1: Global handset features penetration, 2001-2014 230
Mobile imaging . 231
Camera handsets . 231
Figure 7.2: Global cameraphone sales, 2008-2014 . 232
Mobile video . . 233
Figure 7.3: Global mobile video handset sales, 2008–2014 . 234
Mobile broadcast television 235
Technologies of choice . 236
State of the market 237
Mobile audio 238
Market overview and drivers 238
Music handset trends and forecasts 239
Figure 7.4: Global mobile music handset sales, 2008-2014 . 239
Application platforms . . 240
Mobile Java 240
Figure 7.5: Global mobile Java handset sales, 2008-2014 . . 241
BREW . 242
Figure 7.6: Global mobile BREW handset sales, 2008-2014 243
Adobe Flash handsets . 243
Figure 7.7: Global mobile Flash Lite handset sales, 2008-2014 . 245
External memory 245
Market overview and drivers 245
Handsets with external memory: trends and forecasts . . 247
Figure 7.8: Global sales for mobile handsets with external memory slots, 2008-2014 248
Personal area networks 248
Bluetooth . 248
Figure 7.9: Global Bluetooth mobile handset sales, 2008-2014 . 250
Near Field Communication . 250
Multimode handsets 252
Wireless LAN . . 252
Figure 7.10: Global dual-mode WLAN-enabled mobile handset sales, 2008-2014 . . 253
WiMAX 254
Figure 7.11: Global WiMAX mobile device sales, 2008-2014 . . 255
GPS . . 255
Figure 7.12: Overview of available positioning determining technologies 256
Figure 7.13: Global GPS-enabled handset sales 2008-2014 257
C H A P T E R 8
A D V A N C E D O P E R A T I N G S Y S T E M S , U S E R I N T E R F A C E S A N D B R O W S E R S . . 259
Mobile operating system landscape . 259
Figure 8.1: Segmentation of mobile OS market 260
Figure 8.2: Market segmentation of OSs for mobile devices . 264
Symbian . . 264
Figure 8.3: Symbian OS & Foundation version release 265
Microsoft Windows Mobile (WM) 266
Figure 8.4 Microsoft Windows Mobile roadmap 5.0-7.0 . . 267
Mobile phone and services market strategy 268
Linux . 269
Figure 8.5: Pros and cons of a Linux-based OS as an open source OS for mobile handsets . . 270
Android 272
Figure 8.6: Android architecture . . 272
Apple OS X iPhone . 273
Figure 8.7: iPhone and iPod Touch OS releases, Jun-07 to Sept-09 . 274
BlackBerry OS . 275
Figure 8.8: BlackBerry OS major releases, Dec-99 to Sep-09 276
webOS 277
OS opportunities in the mobile handset market . 279
Total handset sales by OS type 279
Figure 8.9: Global smartphone sales, 2008-2014 . . 281
Total smartphone sales by smartphone OS . 281
Figure 8.10: Operating systems defined by platform type 282
Figure 8.11: Global smartphone sales, by OS type, 2008-2014 . 285
Mobile user experience and user interface . 285
Mobile browsers 287
Figure 8.12: Evolution of mobile markup languages (1995-2009) . 288
Mobile browser market segmentation . . 289
Embedded vs. downloadable browsers . 289
Technology segmentation . . 290
Mobile browser market developments . . 290
C H A P T E R 9
H A N D S E T D E V I C E S A N D H A R D W A R E T E C H N O L O G Y 293
Advances in the mobile processing technology . 293
Processing technology . 293
The need to compromise between performance, power consumption and cost 293
Applications processors . . 295
Figure 9.1: ARM processor licensees by architecture version and type, up to 1H09 . . 296
Figure 9.2: Attributes of different ARM architectures and implementations . 298
Multimedia accelerators and co-processors 300
Figure 9.3: Sample hardware accelerator vendors by application 301
Digital signal processing (DSP) 301
The race towards lower footprint semiconductor technology . 302
Figure 9.4: CPU power consumption versus processing speed for different architectures
and silicon technologies 303
Figure 9.5: Improvement of performance and power consumption over different
semiconductor process technologies . 304
Mobile wireless modems and chipsets . . 305
Challenges facing different components of the wireless modem 305
Figure 9.6: Mobile handset reference design 305
Figure 9.7: Different mobile network evolution paths . . 306
Figure 9.8: Market positioning of the leading chipset suppliers . . 307
Radio frequency and related components . . 308
The current market landscape and evolution . . 308
Figure 9.9: Different signal modulations associated with different mobile networks,
effect on power consumption and price . 310
Radio frequency and multimode/multiband support 311
Multi-radio in a single chip and digitization of radio processing 313
Digital baseband and multimedia processors, from modular approach to single chip 316
Different scenarios by market segment: from basic phones to smartphones . 316
Figure 9.10: Single-chip vs. separate processing components by handset market tier . . 317
Case study of modular digital baseband and system-in-package (SiP) . 318
Figure 9.11: Handset sales of devices embedding a separate applications
processor from the baseband, 2008-2014 . . 320
Case study of the single-chip approach 320
Case study of the separate modem and multimedia accelerator approach . . 322
Single-chip evolution of the wireless modem . . 323
Figure 9.12: Major differences between system on chip (SoC)
and system-in-package (SiP) architectures . . 324
Chipset market consolidation . . 325
Profile: Qualcomm . 327
Company overview 327
Figure 9.13: Qualcomm’s main customers for CDMA2000 and WCDMA/HSDPA/HSUPA chipsets 328
Qualcomm product portfolio and roadmap . 328
Strategy and direction . 331
Figure 9.14: Qualcomm’s business model . . 331
Profile: Texas Instruments . 332
Company overview 332
Figure 9.15: Texas Instruments: main customers and partners in the mobile market, 2009 . . 333
Product portfolio . . 334
Figure 9.16: Texas Instruments: market opportunities for different chipsets . . 335
Figure 9.17: Texas Instruments: roadmap of the OMAP generations and their technology specifications . . 337
Strategy . . 338
Profile: Infineon 339
Company overview 339
Product portfolio . . 340
Strategy . . 342
Figure 9.18: Infineon chipset product portfolio in 2009 and roadmap . . 343
Profile: Broadcom . 343
Company overview 343
Figure 9.19: Broadcom’s business model 344
Product portfolio . 345
Strategy . . 345
Figure 9.20: Broadcom’s chipset product portfolio and segmentation . 346
Profile: ST-Ericsson 347
Company overview 347
Product portfolio . . 348
Figure 9.21: ST-Ericsson product portfolio . 349
Figure 9.22: ST-Ericsson’s platform roadmap and addressable markets . . 349
Strategy and partners . 350
Figure 9.23: ST-Ericsson customers and potential customers 351
Figure 9.24: ST-Ericsson business model 351
Handset device memory technology . 352
Embedded storage . 352
Embedded storage evolution in the handset market 352
Figure 9.25: Global mobile handset sales, by feature set segment and by embedded
storage memory footprint, 2008-2014 . 353
RAM memory . . 355
Technology overview . . 355
Multi-chip packages . . 356
Figure 9.26: Memory applications and MCP evolution . 356
Mobile RAM industry roadmap and forecasts by technology and by memory footprint 357
Figure 9.27: Comparison of competing mobile computing RAM technologies 357
Figure 9.28: Global mobile handset sales by feature set segment and
by RAM memory footprint, 2008-2014 358
Screen technology . 359
Market forecasts by color depth 359
Figure 9.29: Global mobile handset sales, by feature set segment and the number of colors
supported by the display, 2008-2014 . . 360
Market forecasts by display resolution . 361
Figure 9.30: Common mobile display sizes and resolutions worldwide, 2005-2009 . 362
Figure 9.31: Global mobile handset sales, by feature set segment and display resolution, 2008-2014 . 363
Mobile handset battery and power consumption 364
Evolution of power consumption 364
Figure 9.32: Battery capacity versus mobile applications and services demand . . 365
Figure 9.33: Battery technology attributes and pricing . 366
Market forecasts by battery capacity . . 366
Figure 9.34: Global mobile handset sales by feature set segment and battery capacity, 2008-2014 367
Figure 9.35: Battery technology roadmap, 1960-2015 . 368
C H A P T E R 1 0
M O B I L E H A N D S E T P R I C I N G A N D C O S T S E V O L U T I O N . 369
Bill of materials (BOM) and average selling prices (ASP) . 369
Definitions and forecast methodology
For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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