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Management Report
Published: July 2009
Pages:  57
Tables: 36
From: GBP 309.38   Buy Now!
Research from: Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd.
Sector: Broadband & Fixed

This annual report offers a wealth of information on the trends and developments in fixed-line and mobile telephony, Internet and broadband and new technologies. Subjects include:
·         Key statistics;
·         Market and industry overviews;
·         Regulatory environment;
·         Major players (fixed and mobile);
·         Infrastructure;
·         Mobile voice and data market;
·         Internet;
·         Broadband and broadband forecasts till 2018.
 
Researcher:- Tine Lewis
Current publication date:- July 2009 (8th Edition)
Next publication date:- July 2010

BuddeComm’s annual publication, Turkey - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts, provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in Turkey.
 
The big change in the market in 2009 will be the introduction of 3G mobile services. This will impact both Turkey’s mobile market, which has seen low growth over the past year, and its broadband market, which is growing strongly.
 
3G licences were awarded in 2008 and the operators plan to launch services before end-2009. It is expected that there will be considerable demand for services and the operators will be hoping that increased data usage will revive ARPU growth and offset difficulties caused by the economic recession.
 
Like most countries in the Middle East, Turkey has a thriving and competitive mobile market, falling fixed-line penetration and low Internet and broadband penetration. Economic growth is expected to be negative in 2009 and this will hit all sectors of the market.
 
The telecoms market has been mostly liberalised with a number of alternative operators and a majority stake in incumbent fixed-line operator Turk Telekom privatised. The telecoms regulatory framework has been amended to conform to the EU’s regulatory framework for communications.
 
With a falling fixed-line voice market, Turk Telekom is concentrating its energies on the broadband Internet market, with some success. Turk Telekom dominates the wholesale broadband market due to the reach of its network and lack of significant competing infrastructure. In addition, the retail share of its subsidiary TTnet is near 95%. It will need to work hard to retain its market dominance however, as the mobile operator Turkcell is also investing in considerable fibre infrastructure through its subsidiary Tellcom. Turkcell has also bought a major ISP. Cable broadband services are also available, with a small, but growing market share.
 
These factors have led to very healthy growth rates in the number of broadband subscribers. A large majority of all Internet subscribers are now broadband subscribers.
 
Turkey’s mobile market is showing signs of saturation, with low growth rates and declining ARPUs. Three operators share the market but Turkcell is very dominant with a market share comfortably over 50%. Turk Telekom’s mobile subsidiary is the smallest operator but is much the fastest growing of the three. All three operators have significant foreign ownership.
 
Key highlights:·         Mobile penetration in Turkey was around 100% in mid-2009, a large market with a population of nearly 70 million served by three very competitive operators.
·         3G mobile licences have been awarded to the three operators, with launch of services expected in 3Q 2009.
·         Incumbent Turk Telekom is pinning its hopes on broadband as competition and mobile services eat into its fixed-line revenue. Broadband penetration rates remain low compared with average EU levels but growth rates are good.
·         Fixed-line subscribers are declining quite quickly with a growth rate only a little above -4%.
·         Turkey has a very healthy broadcasting sector, with terrestrial, cable and satellite channels.
 
Turkey – key telecom parameters – 2008 - 2009
Category | 2008 | 2009 (e) |
Fixed-line services: |   |   |
·         Total subscribers (million) | 17.5 | 17 |
·         Annual growth | -4% | -3% |
·         Fixed-line penetration (population) | 25% | 24% |
Broadband Internet: |   |   |
·         Total subscribers (million) | 6 | 7 |
·         Annual growth | 30% | 20% |
·         Broadband penetration (population) | 8% | 10% |
·         Broadband penetration (household) | 37% | 42% |
Mobile services: |   |   |
·         Total subscribers (million) | 66 | 69 |
·         Annual growth | 7% | 5% |
·         Mobile penetration (population) | 95% | 97% |
| (Source: BuddeComm)
 
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.
 
The following notes provide some background to our scenario forecasting methodology:
·         This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band.
·         The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data.
·         All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

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Table of Contents

1. Key Statistics
1.1 Country overview
2. Telecommunications Market
2.1 Overview of Turkey’s telecom market
3. Regulatory Environment
3.1 Background
3.2 Regulatory authority
3.2.1 Information and Communications Technologies Authority (ICTA)
3.3 Telecom sector liberalisation in Turkey
3.3.1 Licences
3.4 Privatisation
3.4.1 Privatisation background
3.5 Interconnect
3.6 Access
3.7 Number portability
3.8 Universal services
3.9 Electronic Signature Act
4. Fixed Network Operators in Turkey
4.1 Overview
4.2 Turk Telekom
4.3 Turksat
5. Telecommunications Infrastructure
5.1 National telecom network
5.2 International infrastructure
5.2.1 Submarine cable networks
5.2.2 Terrestrial cable networks
5.2.3 Satellite networks
6. Internet Market
6.1 Overview
6.1.1 Internet statistics
6.2 ISP market
6.2.1 Dogan Online
6.2.2 Superonline
6.2.3 Sabanci Telekom
6.2.4 IsNet
6.3 Digital economy
6.3.1 Turkey’s emerging Internet economy
7. Broadband Market
7.1 Overview
7.1.1 Broadband statistics
7.2 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
7.3 Cable modems
7.4 Fibre-to-the-Home (FttH) networks
7.5 Wireless broadband
7.5.1 WiFi
8. Digital Media
8.1 Overview of broadcasting market
8.2 Broadcasting regulation
8.3 Digital TV
8.3.1 Digital Terrestrial TV (DTTV)
8.3.2 Cable TV
8.3.3 Satellite-based digital pay TV developments
8.3.4 Broadband TV (IPTV)
9. Mobile Communications
9.1 Overview of Turkey’s mobile market
9.1.1 Mobile statistics
9.2 Regulatory issues
9.2.1 Third Generation (3G) licences
9.2.2 Third and fourth GSM licences
9.2.3 Significant market power (SMP)
9.2.4 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
9.2.5 Telsim privatisation
9.3 Mobile technologies
9.3.1 Analogue
9.3.2 Digital
9.3.3 3G
9.4 Major mobile operators
9.4.1 Turkcell
9.4.2 Vodafone (Telsim)
9.4.3 Avea
9.5 Mobile voice services
9.5.1 Prepaid
9.5.2 Satellite mobile
9.6 Mobile data services
9.6.1 Short Message Service (SMS) and Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
9.6.2 General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
9.6.3 Push-to-Talk (PTT)
9.6.4 Enhanced Date for GSM Evolution (EDGE)
9.6.5 BlackBerry
9.6.6 Mobile TV
9.7 Mobile content and applications
9.7.1 Location-based services
9.7.2 M-commerce
9.7.3 Mobile advertising
10. Forecasts
10.1 Forecasts – broadband Internet services to 2018
10.1.1 Scenario 1 – higher broadband subscriber growth
10.1.2 Scenario 2 – lower broadband subscriber growth
11. Glossary of Abbreviations
Table 1 – Country statistics Turkey – 2008
Table 2 – Telephone network statistics – 2008
Table 3 – Internet user statistics – 2008
Table 4 – Broadband subscriber statistics – 2008
Table 5 – Mobile statistics – 2008
Table 6 – National telecommunications authority
Table 7 – Turk Telekom revenue, profit and EBITDA – 2007 - 2008
Table 8 – Turk Telekom fixed-line revenue, EBITDA and PSTN ARPU – 2007 - 2008
Table 9 – Fixed lines in service and teledensity – 1995 - 2008
Table 10 – Internet users and penetration rate – 1998 - 2008
Table 11 – Internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2003 - 2008
Table 12 – Electronic certificate & mobile electronic certificate ownership – 2005 - 2008
Table 13 – Broadband subscribers and penetration – 2001 - 2008
Table 14 – Broadband subscribers by access technology – 2004 - 2008
Table 15 – Turk Telekom ADSL ARPU – 2007 - 2008
Table 16 – Broadband market shares – 2007 - 2008
Table 17 – Advertising spending and annual growth by media segment – 2007
Table 18 – Audience share by channel – 2006 - 2007
Table 19 – Mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 1995 - 2008
Table 20 – Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change – 2008
Table 21 – Mobile subscribers by operator – 2007 - 2009
Table 22 – Mobile operators’ market share – 2007 - 2008
Table 23 – Turkcell Group financial data – 2005 - 2008
Table 24 – Turkcell Turkey average monthly ARPU – pre and postpaid – 2001 - 2008
Table 25 – Turkcell Turkey average monthly MOU and churn – 2001 - 2008
Table 26 – Vodafone pre and postpaid ARPU – 2006 - 2009
Table 27 – Vodafone revenue – 2007 - 2008
Table 28 – Avea revenue and EBITDA – 2007 - 2008
Table 29 – Avea prepaid, postpaid and blended ARPU and blended MOU – 2007 - 2008
Table 30 – Ratio of prepaid to postpaid subscribers – 2000 - 2008
Table 31 – Turkcell prepaid subscribers – 2001 - 2009
Table 32 – Vodafone prepaid subscribers – 2006 - 2009
Table 33 – Avea prepaid subscribers – 2007 - 2008
Table 34 – Numbers of SMS and MMS sent – 2004 - 2008
Table 35 – Forecast broadband subscribers – higher market growth scenario – 2008 - 2013; 2018
Table 36 – Forecast broadband subscribers – lower market growth scenario – 2008 - 2013; 2018
Exhibit 1 – Access, the local loop and unbundling – an overview
Exhibit 2 – The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) annual E-readiness criteria

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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