Home > Market Research > Handsets & Devices > Mobile Operating Systems: The impact of open source and importance of user experience

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Market Study
Published: May 2009
Pages: 234
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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Research from: Informa Telecoms and Media
Sector: Handsets & Devices

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Table of Contents

C H A P T E R 1
E X E C U T I V E   S U M M A R Y                     1
The importance of handset software                   1
Figure 1.1: Global mobile handset sales, new vs. old forecasts, 2008-2013         . 1
Open source                         . 2
Figure 1.2: Main open software licenses as a function of the degree of freedom they offer      3
Operating systems                       5
Figure 1.3: Segmentation of mobile OS market                6
Vendor strategies                        6
Mobile OS market                        7
Figure 1.4: Global smartphone sales, 2007-2013               9
Device service ecosystems                      10
C H A P T E R 2
H A N D S E T M A R K E T T R E N D S                  . 13
Figure 2.1: Global mobile handset sales, new vs. old forecasts, 2008-2013         13
Differentiation                        15
Introduction                         15
Figure 2.2: Competitive advantage, strategic options              . 15
Cost leadership                       15
Differentiation                       . 16
Handset hardware                        17
Figure 2.3: Penetration of selected hardware features in new Nokia handsets        . 18
Handset software                        18
User experience                       . 20
Figure 2.4: Selected factors that can influence mobile user experience          . 20
Mobile handset                        . 20
External factors                        21
Conclusion                         . 22
Access to other markets                     22
C H A P T E R 3
O P E N   S O U R C E   I N   M O B I L E                   25
The business perspective                     25
Open source approach                       25
Figure 3.1: The main steps of open source history               25
The philosophy                       . 26
Figure 3.2: The 10 criteria of OSS as defined by OSI v1.9             26
The business case                      . 27
The main misconceptions of open source                  28
It is not a product with no revenue model                28
It is not free of cost                     . 29
It is not a free resource of volunteer developers               . 30
It is not a viral threat to intellectual property                30
Licensing models                       30
Figure 3.3: Different approaches of licensing open source software           31
Contents
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Figure 3.4: Main open software licenses as a function of the degree of freedom they offer      32
Legal characteristics                       32
Disparities between different licenses                  32
GPL and GPLv2                       . 34
Figure 3.5: Main characteristics of different open source licenses           . 35
Changes in the third version of GPL                  . 37
Figure 3.6: Compatibility of GPLv3 with other open source licenses          . 38
Lesser GPL (LGPL)                       38
Apache License (APL)                      38
Eclipse Public License (EPL)                    39
Mozilla Public License (MPL)                    41
Governance models                      . 41
The balance between the ‘Cathedral’ and the ‘Bazaar’ approaches            42
Figure 3.7: Three key governance models                 42
Cathedral model – central control                   42
Bazaar model – a decentralized approach                 44
Key factors needed to create a strong governance model              . 45
Business models                      . 47
Advantages of open source-based business models               . 47
Pitfalls of open source-based business models                48
Choosing an open source business model                 50
Is open source a disruption to the mobile industry?               51
Open source in mobile case studies                  52
WebKit phenomena and development paths                 . 53
Different implementations and forks                  53
WebKit for Nokia’s S60 browser                   . 53
Figure 3.8: Nokia S60 web browser architecture               54
WebKit for Nokia’s S40 browser                   . 54
Industry impact of WebKit                     55
Linux in the mobile market                     56
Benefits and challenges of mobile Linux                 57
Figure 3.9: Advantages and benefits of Linux in the mobile market          58
Google in open source and mobile markets: the Android story             60
Figure 3.10: Android architecture                   61
The rationale behind releasing Android SDK under APL              61
Purple Labs                        . 62
Open source and Java: what happened to Java ME?               . 64
Java open source: future outlook                   64
Open source Java ME components                   65
Figure 3.11: Main components of phoneME Feature and Advanced projects        . 66
Licensing and intellectual property constraints               67
Figure 3.12: Comparative analysis of Sun’s Java ME platform implementations under commercial
and open source licenses                     68
Java ME open source: impact on the mobile industry             . 70
The case of Motorola’s MIDP3 project                  72
Nokia’s experience with open source                   . 74
Major projects sponsored by Nokia                   74
Figure 3.13: Nokia: major open source projects by licensing model (as of January 2009)     . 75
The case of the Maemo platform                    76
VI
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Figure 3.14: Maemo platform architecture diagram              . 77
The reasons behind the acquisition of Symbian by Nokia              . 77
Figure 3.15: Symbian performance, 2001-2008              . 78
The rationale behind taking Symbian and S60 to open source            79
C H A P T E R 4
M O B I L E  O P E R A T I N G  S Y S T E M S                 83
Role and architecture                      83
Figure 4.1: Simplified view of the OS role                 83
Figure 4.2: Typical dual platform architecture functions             . 84
Figure 4.3: Selected applications OS platform components             84
Mobile OS market segments                    85
Figure 4.4: Segmentation of mobile OS market               . 86
Proprietary OS                       87
Open architecture OS                      88
Symbian                          90
Overview                        90
Figure 4.5: Global Symbian OS unit shipments, 2003-1H08 and 2007 shipments by UI platform   90
Symbian: higher volume and lower cost                 . 91
Figure 4.6: Symbian roadmap v9.1 – v9.5                . 92
Development                       94
Conclusion                        . 95
Microsoft Windows Mobile (WM)                    . 96
Overview                         96
Figure 4.7: Global Microsoft Windows Mobile phone-enabled device shipments, 2005-2008    . 96
OS, application and services development                 97
Figure 4.8: Microsoft Windows Mobile roadmap 5.0-6.5             97
Mobile phone market strategy and confronting open source            99
webOS                          101
BlackBerry OS                        . 102
Figure 4.9: BlackBerry OS major releases, Dec-99 to Nov-08            103
Apple OS X iPhone                       . 105
Figure 4.10: iPhone and iPod Touch OS releases, Jun-07 to Jan-09          106
Open source OS                       107
Standards bodies                       . 108
Figure 4.11: Main members of the LiMo Foundation, the OHA and the Symbian Foundation,
as at end Feb-09                       109
LiMo Foundation                       110
Open Handset Alliance                     112
Android                        112
Figure 4.12: Android architecture                  . 113
Symbian Foundation                      114
Figure 4.13: Symbian Foundation timeline                115
Figure 4.14: Symbian Foundation Platform               116
Commercialization and OS                    117
Linux                          . 117
The business case for mobile Linux                  118
Figure 4.15: Pros and cons of a Linux-based OS as an open source OS for mobile handsets    119
Figure 4.16: Market segmentation of Linux offerings              120
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Leading Linux OS developers                     120
MontaVista                        120
Wind River                        121
C H A P T E R 5
V E N D O R   S T R A T E G I E S                    . 123
Nokia                          124
Company overview                      . 124
Figure 5.1: Nokia: company structure                 . 124
Operating system support and segmentation                 127
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 129
Conclusions                         130
Samsung                         131
Company overview                      . 131
Operating system support and segmentation                 132
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 133
Conclusions                         134
LG                           135
Company overview                      . 135
Operating system support and segmentation                 136
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 137
Conclusions                         138
Motorola                         138
Company overview                      . 138
Operating system support and segmentation                 139
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 141
Conclusions                         142
Sony Ericsson                        143
Company overview                      . 143
Operating system support and segmentation                 143
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 145
Conclusions                         146
Apple                          146
Company overview                      . 146
Operating system support and segmentation                 147
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 148
Conclusions                         149
High Tech Computer Corporation (HTC)                . 149
Company overview                      . 149
Operating system support and segmentation                 150
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 151
Conclusions                         152
Research In Motion (RIM)                    . 153
Company overview                      . 153
Operating system support and segmentation                 154
Other software support (UI and browsers)                 155
Conclusions                         155
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C H A P T E R 6
M O B I L E  O S  M A R K E T                     157
Mobile operating system landscape                 . 157
OS market segmentation                      157
Figure 6.1: Segmentation of mobile OS market               158
Figure 6.2: Market segmentation of OSs for mobile devices            162
OS drivers and trends                      . 162
Global mobile OS handset market forecasts              . 166
Total handset sales by OS type                   . 166
Figure 6.3: Global smartphone sales, 2007-2013               168
Figure 6.4: Global smartphone sales, by region, 2007-2013            169
Figure 6.5: Global smartphone penetration of sales, by region, 2007-2013        170
Total smartphone sales by smartphone OS type                170
Figure 6.6: Operating systems defined by platform type             . 170
Figure 6.7: Global smartphone sales, by OS and segment, 2007-2013         173
Figure 6.8: Global smartphone sales, OS segment share, by region, 2008, 2010 and 2013     174
Total smartphone sales by smartphone OS                 . 174
Figure 6.9: Global open OS handset sales, by OS type, 2007-2013          . 177
Figure 6.10: Global smartphone sales volume, by OS and region, 2008, 2010 and 2013     179
Figure 6.11: Global smartphone market shares, by OS and region, 2008, 2010 and 2013     180
Conclusions                       . 181
Figure 6.12: Key OS platform landscape for the leading handset vendors         182
C H A P T E R 7
D E V I C E  S E R V I C E  E C O S Y S T E M S                 185
Application store phenomenon and device service ecosystem          185
Industry dynamics                       . 185
Figure 7.1: Key non-operator mobile application stores: addressable market and revenue models  . 186
What it means for handset vendors                   187
What it means for ISPs and software solution providers              187
What it means for mobile operators                   188
What it means for application developers                  189
Profile: Nokia Ovi                       190
Profile: Apple’s App Store                      192
Enhanced UE through mobile application runtime             193
Trends towards open application runtime                  193
Different flavors of application runtime environment and fragmentation          196
The marketplace and roadmap of Qualcomm’s BREW ecosystem            197
Market drivers and business model                  197
BREW technology and roadmap                   198
Figure 7.2: BREW software platform roadmap              . 199
Figure 7.3: The main differences between next and current generations of BREW       200
Adobe Flash                         201
Adoption level and changes in the business model              . 201
Flash technology and roadmap                   203
Figure 7.4: Flash Lite platform roadmap                 204
Nokia S60: increased support for Web services                . 205
Figure 7.5: Nokia S60 evolution and compatibilities across different generations       206
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Evolution towards MRIAs and mobile MWRT               209
The business case                       . 209
Figure 7.6: Mobile telecoms ecosystem in three dimensions            209
Figure 7.7: Evolution towards mobile Web runtime (MWRT) and mobile rich Internet
applications (MRIAs)                     . 210
Three criteria in choosing MWRT                   211
Figure 7.8: Mobile Web user experience: community-triggered ecosystem         211
Figure 7.9: Schematic picture of cross-platform and seamless web experience        212
Different flavors of MWRT platforms                   212
Figure 7.10: Main MWRT solutions and their development environment        . 214
Microsoft’s Silverlight                     . 214
Adobe’s AIR                       215
Google’s Gears                       216
Sun’s JavaFx and ODP                     . 216
Qualcomm’s Plaza                     . 217
Fragmentation issues and the role of standard bodies              . 217
Main issues in the mass market                   218
Main issues for high-end handsets and smartphones              219
Standardization trends                     219
Mobile operators rationalizing on terminal platforms            220
Advantages of rationalization                    221
Operator choices                        222

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