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Home > Market Research > Handsets & Devices > Mobile Operating Systems: The impact of open source and importance of user experience
"This report gives you an exclusive analysis of the impact of open source on the mobile OS market"
Gavin Byrne, Research Analyst
Mobile Operating Systems: The impact of open source and importance of user experience examines the entire mobile OS landscape with a focus on open architecture and open source software. It also addresses the importance of developer communities and user experience and provides key forecasts to 2013.
Key Coverage in this report
- The reducing use of proprietary OS
- The growing adoption of Open Source software
- The importance of the developer community
- Commoditisation of many mobile handset technologies
- Handset differentiation
- User Experience
- Mobile OS roadmaps
- Vendors’ approach to mobile OS
- Operators’ mobile OS requirements
Key issues addressed
- How will device vendors differentiate themselves?
- What is ‘User Experience’?
- What are the most suitable open source licensing models for mobile handset software?
- How to succeed in an Open Source world
- How to make money with Open Source
- The challenges and risks of Open Source
- What are the major trends in mobile handset OS?
- Which OS platforms will be the most popular in 2009 and in 2013?
- What strategies are being adopted by the leading handset vendors? What does this mean?
- What is the future for proprietary OS?
- What mobile OS strategies are operators adopting?
Forecasts include
- Total handset sales by OS type (smartphone v non-smartphone) 2008-2013 & by region
- Total smartphone sales by smartphone OS type (open v "closed" source, semi-open v open architecture v open source) 2008-2013 & by region
- Total smartphone sales by OS (Apple, RIM, Symbian and Symbian Foundation, Microsoft, Android, LiMo, Web OS) 2008-2013 & by region
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Table of Contents
C H A P T E R 1 E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y 1 The importance of handset software 1 Figure 1.1: Global mobile handset sales, new vs. old forecasts, 2008-2013 . 1 Open source . 2 Figure 1.2: Main open software licenses as a function of the degree of freedom they offer 3 Operating systems 5 Figure 1.3: Segmentation of mobile OS market 6 Vendor strategies 6 Mobile OS market 7 Figure 1.4: Global smartphone sales, 2007-2013 9 Device service ecosystems 10 C H A P T E R 2 H A N D S E T M A R K E T T R E N D S . 13 Figure 2.1: Global mobile handset sales, new vs. old forecasts, 2008-2013 13 Differentiation 15 Introduction 15 Figure 2.2: Competitive advantage, strategic options . 15 Cost leadership 15 Differentiation . 16 Handset hardware 17 Figure 2.3: Penetration of selected hardware features in new Nokia handsets . 18 Handset software 18 User experience . 20 Figure 2.4: Selected factors that can influence mobile user experience . 20 Mobile handset . 20 External factors 21 Conclusion . 22 Access to other markets 22 C H A P T E R 3 O P E N S O U R C E I N M O B I L E 25 The business perspective 25 Open source approach 25 Figure 3.1: The main steps of open source history 25 The philosophy . 26 Figure 3.2: The 10 criteria of OSS as defined by OSI v1.9 26 The business case . 27 The main misconceptions of open source 28 It is not a product with no revenue model 28 It is not free of cost . 29 It is not a free resource of volunteer developers . 30 It is not a viral threat to intellectual property 30 Licensing models 30 Figure 3.3: Different approaches of licensing open source software 31 Contents MOS_ToC.qxd 30/4/09 09:20 Page V Figure 3.4: Main open software licenses as a function of the degree of freedom they offer 32 Legal characteristics 32 Disparities between different licenses 32 GPL and GPLv2 . 34 Figure 3.5: Main characteristics of different open source licenses . 35 Changes in the third version of GPL . 37 Figure 3.6: Compatibility of GPLv3 with other open source licenses . 38 Lesser GPL (LGPL) 38 Apache License (APL) 38 Eclipse Public License (EPL) 39 Mozilla Public License (MPL) 41 Governance models . 41 The balance between the ‘Cathedral’ and the ‘Bazaar’ approaches 42 Figure 3.7: Three key governance models 42 Cathedral model – central control 42 Bazaar model – a decentralized approach 44 Key factors needed to create a strong governance model . 45 Business models . 47 Advantages of open source-based business models . 47 Pitfalls of open source-based business models 48 Choosing an open source business model 50 Is open source a disruption to the mobile industry? 51 Open source in mobile case studies 52 WebKit phenomena and development paths . 53 Different implementations and forks 53 WebKit for Nokia’s S60 browser . 53 Figure 3.8: Nokia S60 web browser architecture 54 WebKit for Nokia’s S40 browser . 54 Industry impact of WebKit 55 Linux in the mobile market 56 Benefits and challenges of mobile Linux 57 Figure 3.9: Advantages and benefits of Linux in the mobile market 58 Google in open source and mobile markets: the Android story 60 Figure 3.10: Android architecture 61 The rationale behind releasing Android SDK under APL 61 Purple Labs . 62 Open source and Java: what happened to Java ME? . 64 Java open source: future outlook 64 Open source Java ME components 65 Figure 3.11: Main components of phoneME Feature and Advanced projects . 66 Licensing and intellectual property constraints 67 Figure 3.12: Comparative analysis of Sun’s Java ME platform implementations under commercial and open source licenses 68 Java ME open source: impact on the mobile industry . 70 The case of Motorola’s MIDP3 project 72 Nokia’s experience with open source . 74 Major projects sponsored by Nokia 74 Figure 3.13: Nokia: major open source projects by licensing model (as of January 2009) . 75 The case of the Maemo platform 76 VI MOS_ToC.qxd 30/4/09 09:20 Page VI Figure 3.14: Maemo platform architecture diagram . 77 The reasons behind the acquisition of Symbian by Nokia . 77 Figure 3.15: Symbian performance, 2001-2008 . 78 The rationale behind taking Symbian and S60 to open source 79 C H A P T E R 4 M O B I L E O P E R A T I N G S Y S T E M S 83 Role and architecture 83 Figure 4.1: Simplified view of the OS role 83 Figure 4.2: Typical dual platform architecture functions . 84 Figure 4.3: Selected applications OS platform components 84 Mobile OS market segments 85 Figure 4.4: Segmentation of mobile OS market . 86 Proprietary OS 87 Open architecture OS 88 Symbian 90 Overview 90 Figure 4.5: Global Symbian OS unit shipments, 2003-1H08 and 2007 shipments by UI platform 90 Symbian: higher volume and lower cost . 91 Figure 4.6: Symbian roadmap v9.1 – v9.5 . 92 Development 94 Conclusion . 95 Microsoft Windows Mobile (WM) . 96 Overview 96 Figure 4.7: Global Microsoft Windows Mobile phone-enabled device shipments, 2005-2008 . 96 OS, application and services development 97 Figure 4.8: Microsoft Windows Mobile roadmap 5.0-6.5 97 Mobile phone market strategy and confronting open source 99 webOS 101 BlackBerry OS . 102 Figure 4.9: BlackBerry OS major releases, Dec-99 to Nov-08 103 Apple OS X iPhone . 105 Figure 4.10: iPhone and iPod Touch OS releases, Jun-07 to Jan-09 106 Open source OS 107 Standards bodies . 108 Figure 4.11: Main members of the LiMo Foundation, the OHA and the Symbian Foundation, as at end Feb-09 109 LiMo Foundation 110 Open Handset Alliance 112 Android 112 Figure 4.12: Android architecture . 113 Symbian Foundation 114 Figure 4.13: Symbian Foundation timeline 115 Figure 4.14: Symbian Foundation Platform 116 Commercialization and OS 117 Linux . 117 The business case for mobile Linux 118 Figure 4.15: Pros and cons of a Linux-based OS as an open source OS for mobile handsets 119 Figure 4.16: Market segmentation of Linux offerings 120 MOS_ToC.qxd 30/4/09 09:20 Page VII Leading Linux OS developers 120 MontaVista 120 Wind River 121 C H A P T E R 5 V E N D O R S T R A T E G I E S . 123 Nokia 124 Company overview . 124 Figure 5.1: Nokia: company structure . 124 Operating system support and segmentation 127 Other software support (UI and browsers) 129 Conclusions 130 Samsung 131 Company overview . 131 Operating system support and segmentation 132 Other software support (UI and browsers) 133 Conclusions 134 LG 135 Company overview . 135 Operating system support and segmentation 136 Other software support (UI and browsers) 137 Conclusions 138 Motorola 138 Company overview . 138 Operating system support and segmentation 139 Other software support (UI and browsers) 141 Conclusions 142 Sony Ericsson 143 Company overview . 143 Operating system support and segmentation 143 Other software support (UI and browsers) 145 Conclusions 146 Apple 146 Company overview . 146 Operating system support and segmentation 147 Other software support (UI and browsers) 148 Conclusions 149 High Tech Computer Corporation (HTC) . 149 Company overview . 149 Operating system support and segmentation 150 Other software support (UI and browsers) 151 Conclusions 152 Research In Motion (RIM) . 153 Company overview . 153 Operating system support and segmentation 154 Other software support (UI and browsers) 155 Conclusions 155 MOS_ToC.qxd 30/4/09 09:20 Page VIII C H A P T E R 6 M O B I L E O S M A R K E T 157 Mobile operating system landscape . 157 OS market segmentation 157 Figure 6.1: Segmentation of mobile OS market 158 Figure 6.2: Market segmentation of OSs for mobile devices 162 OS drivers and trends . 162 Global mobile OS handset market forecasts . 166 Total handset sales by OS type . 166 Figure 6.3: Global smartphone sales, 2007-2013 168 Figure 6.4: Global smartphone sales, by region, 2007-2013 169 Figure 6.5: Global smartphone penetration of sales, by region, 2007-2013 170 Total smartphone sales by smartphone OS type 170 Figure 6.6: Operating systems defined by platform type . 170 Figure 6.7: Global smartphone sales, by OS and segment, 2007-2013 173 Figure 6.8: Global smartphone sales, OS segment share, by region, 2008, 2010 and 2013 174 Total smartphone sales by smartphone OS . 174 Figure 6.9: Global open OS handset sales, by OS type, 2007-2013 . 177 Figure 6.10: Global smartphone sales volume, by OS and region, 2008, 2010 and 2013 179 Figure 6.11: Global smartphone market shares, by OS and region, 2008, 2010 and 2013 180 Conclusions . 181 Figure 6.12: Key OS platform landscape for the leading handset vendors 182 C H A P T E R 7 D E V I C E S E R V I C E E C O S Y S T E M S 185 Application store phenomenon and device service ecosystem 185 Industry dynamics . 185 Figure 7.1: Key non-operator mobile application stores: addressable market and revenue models . 186 What it means for handset vendors 187 What it means for ISPs and software solution providers 187 What it means for mobile operators 188 What it means for application developers 189 Profile: Nokia Ovi 190 Profile: Apple’s App Store 192 Enhanced UE through mobile application runtime 193 Trends towards open application runtime 193 Different flavors of application runtime environment and fragmentation 196 The marketplace and roadmap of Qualcomm’s BREW ecosystem 197 Market drivers and business model 197 BREW technology and roadmap 198 Figure 7.2: BREW software platform roadmap . 199 Figure 7.3: The main differences between next and current generations of BREW 200 Adobe Flash 201 Adoption level and changes in the business model . 201 Flash technology and roadmap 203 Figure 7.4: Flash Lite platform roadmap 204 Nokia S60: increased support for Web services . 205 Figure 7.5: Nokia S60 evolution and compatibilities across different generations 206 MOS_ToC.qxd 30/4/09 09:20 Page IX Evolution towards MRIAs and mobile MWRT 209 The business case . 209 Figure 7.6: Mobile telecoms ecosystem in three dimensions 209 Figure 7.7: Evolution towards mobile Web runtime (MWRT) and mobile rich Internet applications (MRIAs) . 210 Three criteria in choosing MWRT 211 Figure 7.8: Mobile Web user experience: community-triggered ecosystem 211 Figure 7.9: Schematic picture of cross-platform and seamless web experience 212 Different flavors of MWRT platforms 212 Figure 7.10: Main MWRT solutions and their development environment . 214 Microsoft’s Silverlight . 214 Adobe’s AIR 215 Google’s Gears 216 Sun’s JavaFx and ODP . 216 Qualcomm’s Plaza . 217 Fragmentation issues and the role of standard bodies . 217 Main issues in the mass market 218 Main issues for high-end handsets and smartphones 219 Standardization trends 219 Mobile operators rationalizing on terminal platforms 220 Advantages of rationalization 221 Operator choices 222
For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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