Home > Market Research > Broadband & Fixed > Overbuild: The New RBOC Advanced Access Architecture Strategy?
As you read this, Verizon is placing fiber cable for Advanced Access Architecture (FiOS) in AT&T franchise areas in north Texas. They expect to start offering service in these areas in direct competition with existing cable companies and AT&T late in 2008. This is probably the first time that the RBOCs have directly competed with each other in residential services. It may sound a note that can drastically change the industry.
In June 2008 the Texas PUC issued an order approving Verizon’s request to extend its “State-issued Certificate of Franchise Authority” to 12 new areas immediately outside Verizon’s Texas franchise and inside AT&T’s franchise. Shortly thereafter, they began extending fiber from their existing FiOS-equipped central offices to relatively nearby areas in these newly acquired franchise areas.
In recognition of the possible overriding importance of this development, Information Gatekeepers Inc. (IGI) has commissioned Clif Holliday to expand their group of reports on Advanced Access Architectures to include a new report on this overbuild activity. The new report, which will be out before the end of the year, is entitled "Overbuild: The New RBOC Advanced Access Architecture Strategy?"
Holliday commented, “It happens that this overbuild activity is taking place in my home town of Colleyville, Texas (and elsewhere). All I have to do is look out my office window to see what may be the biggest change in residential telecommunications since the Carterphone decision. It is interesting that, although Verizon still refers to this as an ‘experiment,’ they have already developed in-house nomenclature ‘NOOF’ – Near Out-of-Franchise – for the activity. Our new report will look at the possible ramifications of this overbuild; the strategic drivers of overbuild; who will benefit, and who will be harmed; the likely telecommunication company winners and losers; areas of the country that may be candida tes for overbuilding; and the positioning elements that could make this a nationwide phenomenon.”
Information Gatekeepers’ president, Dr. Paul Polishuk, added, “IGI has long recognized the Advanced Access Architecture thrusts of the major U.S. carriers as among the most important events in telecommunications history. As such, IGI has been periodically issuing major reports on the FTTP/FTTN activities of the RBOCs since they began in 2003. Earlier this year, we issued ‘Advanced Access Architectures – 2008: AT&T, Verizon, and Qwest Plans and Forecasts,’ the most comprehensive of our reports on this subject. In recognition of the wide interest and deep importance of the FTTP/FTTN phenomena, we are now issuing a series of reports that focus on narrower aspects of Advanced Access Architectures.”
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Table of Contents
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
Reasons for a New Report
Forecast
Costs and Financial Impacts
BellSouth Properties
This Report
Background
Why AAA?
Comments on Triennial Review Results
Original Schedule
Differences of the RBOCs
Market Competitive Analysis
AAA as the Light Sword of the RBOCs
RBOC Loss of Main Lines
Post-merger Competition
RBOC Purchase of IXCs
RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
New High-Speed Access Forecast
Cable Companies vs. Satellite Companies
The Need for Capacity
How Much Bandwidth Is Enough?
Basis for Estimating Needs
Meeting the Bandwidth Needs
The Current Options
FIOS – FTTP Bandwidth Capacity
Uverse
Alternatives to Achieve the Required Bandwidth
Pair Bonding
Reduce the Distance
Hybrid FTTN – FTTC
Compression
NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON
10-GPON
WDM-PONs
Vendors of WDM-PON
Other WDM-PON Activities
Vendors of WDM – Listing and Summary of Status
ADC
ADVA
Alcatel-Lucent
Ericsson
LG Electronics
Nortel
Novera
Pirelli
Tellabs
Cost Analysis of AAA
Costs of AAAs
Uverse
FiOS
Qwest
Fiber Requirements for Various Advanced Access Architectures
BellSouth's Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
AT&T's Fiber to the node (FTTN)
Verizon’s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)
Analysis of Architectural Differences
AT&T’s New Plans for BellSouth – a Hybrid FTTC/FTTN
Impact of Loss of High-Speed Access Lines
RBOC Plans—RBOCs' AAA Plan — The Lightwave Is Back!
Verizon Plan
Verizon — Physical Description
Verizon Vendors
Verizon — Size of Rollout
Verizon — Services
Verizon as an Overbuilder
AT&T Plan
AT&T — Physical Description
AT&T Vendors
AT&T — Size of Rollout
AT&T — Uverse Services
Video
Internet
Voice
AT&T U-verse Video Services
High-Speed Access U-verse Services
BellSouth Plan
BellSouth — Physical Description
Pre-Merger
Post-Merger
AT&T’s New Plans for BellSouth
Qwest Plan
FTTN
FTTP
Comparing the Plans of the RBOCs
Operations Savings Estimates
Growth Comparisons
Summary of Announced Plans
Verizon
AT&T
Bell South
Qwest
Summary information on the Announced Plans
Announced Plans — Quantitative Analysis
Announced Plans — Size
Announced Plans — Costs
Announced Plans – Cost by Plant Segments
Announced Plans – Capital and Budget impacts
Announced Plans – Video Costs
Forecast for AAAs
Forecasts for Deployment
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
Qwest
Deployment Forecast Summary
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
Qwest
Forecast Size of Deployments
Forecast of Homes Passed
Penetration Rates
Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL
Technology Forecast
Forecast Technologies by Type
Forecast PONs — GPON vs. BPONs
Forecast Costs
Unit Cost Tables
Forecast Plant Segment Cost
Forecast Capital Costs and Budget Impacts
Forecast Video Costs
Vendors of the Light Sword
Requirements for a Successful Vendor
Possible Consortiums
Selected Vendors
Vendors of GPONS
Vendors Listing
Summary of Vendors
Detailed Listing of Vendors
Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
ADC
Adtran
Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
Alcatel-Lucent
Alloptic Inc
Amino Technologies plc
AOC Technologies
Avanex Corporation
Broadlight
Calix
Cisco
Conexant
Corrigent
Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
Ericsson
Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
Finisar Corporation
FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
Fujitsu
Genone3 Technologies Inc.
Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
Humax USA Inc.
Iamba Networks
JDS Uniphase
Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
LG Electronics
LightComm Technology
Marconi
Microsoft
Motorola
NeoPhotonics
Nortel
Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
OFS
O-Net Communications Ltd
Oplink Communications, Inc.
Optiviva Inc.
Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
Paceon (Mitsubishi)
Passavé (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
PMC-Sierra
Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
Salira Optical Network Systems
Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
Siemens
Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
Tellabs
Terawave (Acquired by Occam Networks)
Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by Tellabs)
Appendix I - Equipment and Fiber Requirements
Equipment
PONs – OLTs, Splitters, ONUs
Equipment Requirements – PONS, OLTs, Splitters, ONUs – RBOC Plan
BPONS – RBOC Plan
GPONS – RBOC Plan
Total PONs – RBOC Plan
Equipment Requirements – PONS OLTs, Splitters, ONUs – IGI Forecast
BPONs – IGI Forecast
GPONs – IGI Forecast
Total PONs – IGI Forecast
Equipment for FTTN
FTTN Equipment Required – Plans
FTTN Equipment Required – Forecast
Fiber Needed
Fibers – Current RBOC Plans
Fibers – IGI Forecast RBOC Plans
Fibers Required – Summary and Comparison of Plans vs. Forecast
Appendix II - Access Architecture
Various Approaches for Fiber-based Access Architecture
Fiber to the "X"
xDSL Versions
Design Details for Current Plans
Fiber to the Neighborhood (FTTN)
AT&T's Fiber to the node (FTTN)
BellSouth's Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
The RFP — PONs Will Set Us Free
What Are PONs?
The PON Design
Status of PON
Advantage and Disadvantages of PON
Types of PONs
BPON
EPON
GPON
The PON in the First RFP
GPONs
Architectures to Meet the Needs
Appendix III - Approaches to Video Delivery
Broadcast
IPTV
IPTV Architecture
IPTV Global Architecture
Super Hub Office
Video Hub Office
Serving Offices
IPTV Distribution and Access Architecture
IPTV Channel Selection
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Table of Figures
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Figure 1: Lightwave Network
Figure 2: Five Reasons for 'Why AAA Now?'
Figure 3: FTTP Schedule
Figure 4: Summary of Competitive Position
Figure 5, Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
Figure 6, Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
Figure 7: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
Figure 8: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
Figure 9: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Figure 10: New (2008) High Speed Forecast
Figure 11: Adoption Rates of PCs and High-Speed Access
Figure 12: Cable Companies vs. Satellite Companies
Figure 13: Bandwidth Needs — MPEG4 Compression Technology
Figure 14, Forecast Access Bandwidth Requirements 2010
Figure 15, PONs' Bandwidth Capacity
Figure 16, VDSL2 Bandwidth vs. Distance
Figure 17, Predominant Advanced Access Architectures
Figure 18, BellSouth FTTC
Figure 19, AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
Figure 20, Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
Figure 21, Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
Figure 22, Length of Fiber for the Architectures
Figure 23, Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
Figure 24, Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
Figure 25, AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
Figure 26, Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
Figure 27: Verizon High-speed Access Lines — By Quarter
Figure 28, AT&T H-S Additions
Figure 29, FiOS States - 2008
Figure 30: Verizon Services
Figure 31: AT & T U-verse Video Services
Figure 32: North Texas U-verse Service Offering
Figure 33: AT&T U-verse High-speed Access Services
Figure 34, Comparison of Internet Access Speed Offered
Figure 35, Growth of AAAs thru mid-2008
Figure 36: Announced Plans Summary Chart
Figure 37: Announced Plans — Annual HPs
Figure 38: Announced Plans — HPs Cumulative Passed vs. Served
Figure 39: Announced Plan — Comparison to High-speed Accesses
Figure 40: FTTP Served Customer Cost Assumptions
Figure 41: FTTP Cost per Unserved (but passed) House
Figure 42: Assumed Cost for FTTN and FTTC
Figure 43: FTTP Announced Plan — Costs by Segments
Figure 44: Announced Plan — Capital Costs and Budget Impact
Figure 45: Segment Costs Including Video
Figure 46: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative — All Technologies
Figure 47: Forecast Homes Passed Annually — By Company — All Technologies
Figure 48: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
Figure 49, AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
Figure 50: Technology Type Cumulative — Forecast
Figure 51: Forecast Technologies — Homes Passed — Annual
Figure 52: Forecast Homes Passed — PONs vs. Other Technologies
Figure 53: Total PONs Forecast — RBOCs — Cumulative
Figure 54: Moving from BPONs to GPONs
Figure 55: Forecast BPONs vs. GPONs by Year
Figure 56: Verizon PON Forecast
Figure 57: AT&T PON Forecast
Figure 58: Served Customer Cost Assumptions
Figure 59: Cost per Unserved (but Passed) House
Figure 60: Assumed Cost for FTTN and FTTC
Figure 61: Forecast FTTP Costs by Plant Segment
Figure 62: Forecast Plan Costs by Architecture
Figure 63: Forecast Cumulative Cost and Annual Budget Impact
Figure 64: Video Costs as Related to Total Plan
Figure 65: Requirements for Successful RFP Vendor to First FTTP RFP
Figure 66, Possible Consortiums
Figure 67, Originally Selected Vendors
Figure 68, Newly Selected Vendors
Figure 69: GPON Selected Vendors
Figure 70, Summary of Vendors
Figure 71, Currently Planned PONs
Figure 72, Forecast for PON Implementation
Figure 73, Forecast Access Networks By Architecture
Figure 74, Chart of Equipment Requirements – BPONS – Plan
Figure 75, Chart of Equipment Requirements – GPONs – Plan
Figure 76, Chart of Equipment Requirements – all PONs – Plan
Figure 77, Chart of Equipment Requirements – BPONs – Forecast
Figure 78, Chart of Equipment Requirements – GPONs – Forecast
Figure 79, Chart of Equipment Requirements – All PONs – Forecast
Figure 80, Equipment Requirements - FTTN Plans
Figure 81, Equipment Requirements - FTTN Forecast
Figure 82, Fibers Needed Current Plans
Figure 83, Forecast Fiber Used By Technology
Figure 84, Comparison of Plan vs. Forecast for Fiber Strand Requirements
Figure 85, Fiber to the 'X' Varieties
Figure 86, Chart of Various xDSL Technologies
Figure 87: Fiber to the Neighborhood
Figure 88: Fiber to the node
Figure 89: Fiber to the Curb
Figure 90: PON Basic Arrangement
Figure 91: RFP PON — Central Office Portion
Figure 92: RFP PON — Outside Plant Portion
Figure 93: RFP PON Service Assignments
Figure 94: BPON/GPON Comparison
Figure 95: Typical GPON
Figure 96: Bandwidth Needs vs. Capabilities
Figure 97: Broadcast TV on BPONs
Figure 98: Broadcast TV
Figure 99: IPTV General Architecture
Figure 100: IPTV Global Architecture
Figure 101: IPTV Access Architecture
Figure 102: FTTP Architecture for IPTV
Figure 103: IPTV Hub Office Architecture
Figure 104: IPTV Channel Selection
For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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