Home > Market Research > Mobile Markets > Global Mobile Forecasts to 2013

Table of Contents

Market Study
Published: December 2008
Pages: 439
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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Research from: Informa Telecoms and Media
Sector: Mobile Markets

Global Mobile Forecasts to 2013 is the industry leading guide to the entire global mobile industry. Contains comprehensive and detailed forecasts for the mobile industry as a whole and provides country profiles for countries worldwide, delivering granular forecasts to 2013 based on the latest subscription data available and provides a distinctive future-facing angle allowing a clear understanding of the status of each country and regions as a whole. Key Coverage

Global summary - worldwide and regional forecasts to 2013 for total subscriptions and penetration, technology, ARPU and revenue, prepaid and postpaid, all presented in easy to digest tables and charts allowing you to assess the growth and future development of the entire global mobile market

Country profiles - each profile includes total subscribers and subscriptions, a detailed market overview, regulatory developments, 3G and 3.5G developments and subscriber mix (prepaid vs postpaid) plus profiles of the major operators in each country

Forecasts to 2013 - offering the most comprehensive and accurate assessment of the shape of the future mobile market

Market Data
Global Mobile Forecasts to 2013 will enable you to gain an accurate view of the entire global market and a review of worldwide regions:

Africa, Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, North America and Latin America.
Forecasts
1. Global
> Global market forecasts
2. Africa
> Regional market forecasts
> Egypt
> Nigeria
> South Africa
> Uganda
3. Asia Pacific
> Regional market forecasts
> Australia
> China
> India
> Indonesia
> Japan
> Malaysia
> Philippines
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
4. Eastern Europe
> Regional market forecasts
> Czech Republic
> Poland
> Romania
> Russia
> Ukraine
5. Latin America
> Regional market forecasts
> Argentina
> Brazil
> Mexico
6. Middle East
> Regional market forecasts
> Israel
> Jordan
> Saudi Arabia
> Turkey
7. North America
> Regional market forecasts
> Canada
> USA

8. Western Europe
> Regional market forecasts
> France
> Germany
> Greece
> Italy
> The Netherlands
> Spain
> UK

Who should read this report

Operators
> evaluate the size of future markets for business plans for investment in new countries
> learn about potential competition in new areas
> assess the current competition where you already operate

Vendors
> assess the potential size of future markets for new business plans for the investment in new regions
> identify new sales areas for existing products
> formulate your new product development strategy

Service providers and application developers
> discover how well new 3G networks are performing
> find out where and when new next generation networks will launch

Content providers
> find out where the major markets for new mobile content and services will be

Analysts and consultants
> base your advice and recommendations to clients on the latest most accurate data available on the global mobile markets

Top of Page

Table of Contents

Global market forecasts. . 5
Figure 1.1: Global subscriptions growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 6
Figure 1.2: Global share of net additions by region between 2007 and 2013 . . 6
Global market overview . . 6
Figure 1.3: Global mobile subscription growth by region, 2008-2013 . 6
Global forecasts analysis 8
Subscription and penetration forecasts . . 8
Figure 1.4: Global mobile market growth versus penetration forecast, 2007-2013 . 8
Figure 1.5: Top 10 countries by mobile subscriptions, 2007 and 2013 9
Figure 1.6: Top 10 countries by mobile net additions, 2007-2013 . . 10
Subscription forecasts. . 10
Figure 1.7: Global mobile net additions and market growth by region, 2007-2013 . . 10
Figure 1.8: Mobile net additions and market growth, 2007-2013*. . 11
Figure 1.9: Global top 10 markets by net additions, 2007-2013. 12
Figure 1.10: Global top 10 markets by growth, 2007-2013 . 12
Penetration forecasts . . 12
Figure 1.11: Penetration in 2007 versus penetration in 2013* . . 13
Prepaid and postpaid forecasts . 14
Figure 1.12: Global prepaid versus postpaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 15
Technology forecasts 15
Figure 1.13: Global mobile subscriptions by technology generation, 2007-2013 . . 15
Figure 1.14: Global mobile 3G and 3.5G subscriptions, 2007-2013 16
Figure 1.15: Global mobile subscriptions by GSM and CDMA technology families, 2007-2013 . 17
ARPU and revenue forecasts 17
Figure 1.16: Global ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 17
Figure 1.17: Global mobile voice and data revenues, 2007-2013 18
Figure 1.18: Global mobile voice and data ARPU, 2007-2013 . 19
Figure 1.19: Share of total revenues by region, 2007 and 2013 . 19
Figure 1.20: Share of data revenues by region, 2007 and 2013 . 20
C H A P T E R 2
A F R I C A . 21
Regional market forecasts . 21
Total subscription growth . . 21
Figure 2.1: Africa subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 21
2007 performance. . 24
Prepaid/postpaid mix25
Figure 2.2: Africa prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 25
2007 performance. . 26
Technology mix . 27
Figure 2.3: Africa subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 28
2007 performance. . 30
ARPU and revenues . 31
III
Contents
Figure 2.4: Africa ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013. 31
2007 performance. . 33
Figure 2.5: Africa mobile subscription forecasts by country, 2007-2013. . 34
Egypt. . 36
Total subscriptions growth. . 36
Figure 2.6: Egypt subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 36
2007 performance. . 37
Figure 2.7: Egypt subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 38
Prepaid/postpaid mix38
Figure 2.8: Egypt prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013. 38
2007 performance. . 39
Technology mix . 40
Figure 2.9: Egypt subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-201340
2007 performance. . 42
ARPU and revenues . 43
Figure 2.10: Egypt ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 43
2007 performance. . 44
Market developments45
Regulatory developments45
Licensing and spectrum 45
Nigeria 46
Total subscriptions growth. . 46
Figure 2.11: Nigeria subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013. . 46
2007 performance. . 48
Figure 2.12: Nigeria subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 48
Prepaid/postpaid mix49
Figure 2.13: Nigeria prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 49
2007 performance. . 49
Technology mix . 50
Figure 2.14: Nigeria subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 50
2007 performance. . 52
ARPU and revenues . 52
Figure 2.15: Nigeria ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013. . 52
2007 performance. . 53
Market developments54
Licensing and spectrum 54
Network and service developments. . 55
South Africa. . 56
Total subscriptions growth. . 56
Figure 2.16: South Africa subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 56
2007 performance. . 57
Figure 2.17: South Africa subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 58
Prepaid/postpaid mix58
Figure 2.18: South Africa prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 58
2007 performance. . 59
Technology mix . 60
Figure 2.19: South Africa subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 60
2007 performance. . 61
ARPU and revenues . 62
Figure 2.20: South Africa ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 62
IV
2007 performance. . 63
Market developments64
Regulatory developments64
Licensing and spectrum 64
Network and service developments. . 65
Other network and service developments 65
Uganda66
Total subscriptions growth. . 66
Figure 2.21: Uganda subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 66
2007 performance. . 68
Figure 2.22: Uganda subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 68
Prepaid/postpaid mix69
Figure 2.23: Uganda prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 69
2007 performance. . 69
Technology mix . 70
Figure 2.24: Uganda subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-201370
2007 performance. . 71
ARPU and revenues . 72
Figure 2.25: Uganda ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 72
2007 performance. . 72
Market developments73
Licensing and spectrum 73
WiMAX . 73
Other network and service developments 74
C H A P T E R 3
A S I A P A C I F I C 75
Regional market forecasts . 75
Total subscriptions growth. . 75
Figure 3.1: Asia Pacific subscription growth forecasts, 2007-201375
2007 performance. . 76
Prepaid/postpaid mix77
Figure 3.2: Asia Pacific prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 77
2007 performance. . 77
Technology mix . 78
Figure 3.3: Asia Pacific subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 78
2007 performance. . 81
ARPU and revenues . 82
Figure 3.4: Asia Pacific ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 82
2007 performance. . 82
Figure 3.5: Asia Pacific mobile subscription forecasts by country, 2007-2013 84
Australia. . 85
Total subscriptions growth. . 85
Figure 3.6: Australia subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 85
2007 performance. . 86
Figure 3.7: Australia subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 86
Prepaid/postpaid mix86
Figure 3.8: Australia prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 86
2007 performance. . 87
V
Technology mix . 87
Figure 3.9: Australia subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 87
2007 performance. . 89
ARPU and revenues . 90
Figure 3.10: Australia ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 90
2007 performance. . 90
Market developments . . 91
Licensing and spectrum 91
MVNOs . 91
3G and 3.5G+ developments 92
Other network and service developments 92
China . 93
Total subscriptions growth. . 93
Figure 3.11: China subscription growth forecasts, 2007-201393
2007 performance. . 94
Figure 3.12: China subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 95
Prepaid/postpaid mix95
Figure 3.13: China prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 95
2007 performance. . 95
Technology mix . 96
Figure 3.14: China subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 96
2007 performance. . 98
ARPU and revenues . 98
Figure 3.15: China ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 99
2007 performance. 100
Market developments. . 102
Regulatory developments. . 102
Licensing and spectrum . . 102
Network and service developments. 102
India . 104
Total subscriptions growth. 104
Figure 3.16: India subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 104
2007 performance. 105
Figure 3.17: India subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 106
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 106
Figure 3.18: India prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 106
2007 performance. 106
Technology mix 107
Figure 3.19: India subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013. 108
2007 performance. 109
ARPU and revenues 110
Figure 3.20: India ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 110
2007 performance. 111
Market developments. . 112
Regulatory developments. . 112
Licensing and spectrum . . 113
WiMAX 114
MVNOs 114
Other network and service developments . . 114
VI
Indonesia 116
Total subscriptions growth. 116
Figure 3.21: Indonesia subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 116
2007 performance. 117
Figure 3.22: Indonesia subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 118
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 118
Figure 3.23: Indonesia prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013. . 118
2007 performance. 119
Technology mix 119
Figure 3.24: Indonesia subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013. 119
2007 performance. 121
ARPU and revenues 121
Figure 3.25: Indonesia ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 121
2007 performance. 122
Market developments. . 123
Regulatory developments. . 123
WiMAX 123
Japan 125
Total subscriptions growth. 125
Figure 3.26: Japan subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 125
2007 performance. 126
Figure 3.27: Japan subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 126
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 127
Figure 3.28: Japan prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 127
2007 performance. 127
Technology mix 128
Figure 3.29: Japan subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 129
2007 performance. 130
ARPU and revenues 131
Figure 3.30: Japan ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 131
2007 performance. 132
Market developments. . 133
Regulatory developments. . 133
Licensing and spectrum . . 133
Other network and service developments . . 134
Convergence . . 134
MVNOs 135
WiMAX 135
Malaysia 136
Total subscriptions growth. 136
Figure 3.31: Malaysia subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013136
2007 performance. 137
Figure 3.32: Malaysia subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 137
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 137
Figure 3.33: Malaysia prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 137
2007 performance. 138
Technology mix 138
Figure 3.34: Malaysia subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 139
2007 performance. 140
ARPU and revenues 141
Figure 3.35: Malaysia ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 141
2007 performance. 142
Market developments. . 142
Regulatory developments. . 142
WiMAX 143
Other network and service developments . . 143
Philippines. . 144
Total subscriptions growth. 144
Figure 3.36: Philippines subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 144
2007 performance. 145
Figure 3.37: Philippines subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 145
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 145
Figure 3.38: Philippines prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013. 145
2007 performance. 146
Technology mix 146
Figure 3.39: Philippines subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 147
2007 performance. 148
ARPU and revenues 149
Figure 3.40: Philippines ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 149
2007 performance. 149
Market developments. . 150
Regulatory developments. . 150
Licensing and spectrum . . 150
South Korea. 152
Total subscriptions growth. 152
Figure 3.41: South Korea subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 152
2007 performance. 153
Figure 3.42: South Korea subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 153
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 154
Figure 3.43: South Korea prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013154
2007 performance. 154
Technology mix 154
Figure 3.44: South Korea subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 155
2007 performance. 156
ARPU and revenues 157
Figure 3.45: South Korea ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 157
2007 performance. 157
Market developments. . 159
Regulatory developments. . 159
MVNOs 159
WiBro . 159
WiMAX 160
Taiwan . . 161
Total subscriptions growth. 161
Figure 3.46: Taiwan subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 161
2007 performance. 162
Figure 3.47: Taiwan subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 162
VIII
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 162
Figure 3.48: Taiwan prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 162
2007 performance. 163
Technology mix 163
Figure 3.49: Taiwan subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013. . 164
2007 performance. 165
ARPU and revenues 166
Figure 3.50: Taiwan ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 166
2007 performance. 166
Market developments. . 167
WiMAX 167
Convergence . . 168
Thailand . 169
Total subscriptions growth. 169
Figure 3.51: Thailand subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 169
2007 performance. 170
Figure 3.52: Thailand subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 170
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 170
Figure 3.53: Thailand prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 170
2007 performance. 171
Technology mix 171
Figure 3.54: Thailand subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013. 172
2007 performance. 173
ARPU and revenues 174
Figure 3.55: Thailand ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 174
2007 performance. 175
Market developments. . 176
Regulatory developments. . 176
Licensing and spectrum . . 176
C H A P T E R 4 . . 177
E A S T E R N E U R O P E . 177
Regional market forecasts 177
Total subscriptions growth. 177
Figure 4.1: Eastern Europe subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 177
2007 performance. 178
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 179
Figure 4.2: Eastern Europe prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013. . 179
2007 performance. 180
Technology mix 181
Figure 4.3: Eastern Europe subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 181
2007 performance. 183
ARPU and revenues 185
Figure 4.4: Eastern Europe ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 185
2007 performance. 185
Figure 4.5: Eastern Europe mobile subscription forecasts by country, 2007-2013 187
IX
Czech Republic. 188
Total subscription growth . 188
Figure 4.6: Czech Republic subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 188
2007 performance. 189
Figure 4.7: Czech Republic subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013. . 189
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 190
Figure 4.8: Czech Republic prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 190
2007 performance. 190
Technology mix 191
Figure 4.9: Czech Republic subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 191
2007 performance. 193
ARPU and revenues 193
Figure 4.10: Czech Republic ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 193
2007 performance. 194
Market developments. . 195
Network and service developments 195
Poland . . 196
Total subscriptions growth. 196
Figure 4.11: Poland subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 196
2007 performance. 197
Figure 4.12: Poland subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 197
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 197
Figure 4.13: Poland prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013. 198
2007 performance. 198
Technology mix 199
Figure 4.14: Poland subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 199
2007 performance. 200
ARPU and revenues 201
Figure 4.15: Poland ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 201
2007 performance. 202
Market developments. . 203
Regulatory developments. . 203
Licensing and spectrum . . 203
Other network and service developments . . 203
Romania . 205
Total subscriptions growth. 205
Figure 4.16: Romania subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 205
2007 performance. 206
Figure 4.17: Romania subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 206
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 207
Figure 4.18: Romania prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 207
2007 performance. 207
Technology mix 208
Figure 4.19: Romania subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 208
2007 performance. 210
ARPU and revenues 210
Figure 4.20: Romania ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 210
2007 performance. 211
X
Market developments. . 212
Regulatory developments. . 212
Licensing and spectrum . . 212
Convergence . . 213
Network and service developments 213
Russia214
Total subscriptions growth. 214
Figure 4.21: Russia subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013. . 214
2007 performance. 215
Figure 4.22: Russia subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 215
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 216
Figure 4.23: Russia prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 216
2007 performance. 216
Technology mix 217
Figure 4.24: Russia subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 218
2007 performance. 219
ARPU and revenues 220
Figure 4.25: Russia ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013. . 220
2007 performance. 221
Market developments. . 222
Licensing and spectrum . . 222
WiMAX 223
Other network and service developments . . 223
Ukraine . 224
Total subscriptions growth. 224
Figure 4.26: Ukraine subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 224
2007 performance. 225
Figure 4.27: Ukraine subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 225
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 226
Figure 4.28: Ukraine prepaid subscriptions forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 226
2007 performance. 226
Technology mix 227
Figure 4.29: Ukraine subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 227
2007 performance. 228
ARPU and revenues 229
Figure 4.30: Ukraine ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 229
2007 performance. 230
Market developments. . 231
Licensing and spectrum . . 231
Other network and service developments . . 231
C H A P T E R 5
L A T I N A M E R I C A A N D C A R I B B E A N 233
Regional market forecasts 233
Total subscriptions growth. 233
Figure 5.1: Latin America subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 233
2007 performance. 235
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 236
Figure 5.2: Latin America prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 236
2007 performance. 237
XI
Technology mix 238
Figure 5.3: Latin America subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 238
2007 performance. 240
ARPU and revenues 240
Figure 5.4: Latin America ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 240
2007 performance. 241
Figure 5.5: Latin America and Caribbean mobile subscription forecasts by country, 2007-2013. 244
Argentina 245
Total subscriptions growth. 245
Figure 5.6: Argentina subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 245
2007 performance. 247
Figure 5.7: Argentina subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 247
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 247
Figure 5.8: Argentina prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 247
2007 performance. 248
Technology mix 248
Figure 5.9: Argentina subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 249
2007 performance. 250
ARPU and revenues 251
Figure 5.10: Argentina ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 251
2007 performance. 251
Market developments. . 252
Licensing and spectrum . . 252
Network and service developments. 253
Brazil 254
Total subscriptions growth. 254
Figure 5.11: Brazil subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013. . 254
2007 performance. 257
Figure 5.12: Brazil subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013. . 258
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 258
Figure 5.13: Brazil prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 258
2007 performance. 259
Technology mix 260
Figure 5.14: Brazil subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 260
2007 performance. 261
ARPU and revenues 262
Figure 5.15: Brazil ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013. . 262
2007 performance. 263
Market developments. . 264
Licensing and spectrum . . 264
WiMAX 264
Other network and service developments . . 265
Mexico . . 266
Total subscriptions growth. 266
Figure 5.16: Mexico subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 266
2007 performance. 267
Figure 5.17: Mexico subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 268
XII
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 268
Figure 5.18: Mexico prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 268
2007 performance. 269
Technology mix 270
Figure 5.19: Mexico subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 270
2007 performance. 271
ARPU and revenues 272
Figure 5.20: Mexico ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 272
2007 performance. 273
Market developments. . 273
Regulatory developments. . 273
Licensing and spectrum . . 274
Other network and service developments . . 275
C H A P T E R 6
M I D D L E E A S T 277
Regional market forecasts 277
Total subscriptions growth. 277
Figure 6.1: Middle East subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 277
2007 performance. 280
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 281
Figure 6.2: Middle East prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 281
2007 performance. 282
Technology mix 284
Figure 6.3: Middle East subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013284
2007 performance. 286
ARPU and revenues 286
Figure 6.4: Middle East ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 286
2007 performance. 287
Figure 6.5: Middle East mobile subscription forecasts by country, 2007-2013 . . 289
Israel 290
Total subscriptions growth. 290
Figure 6.6: Israel subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 290
2007 performance. 291
Figure 6.7: Israel subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 291
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 291
Figure 6.8: Israel prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 291
2007 performance. 292
Technology mix 292
Figure 6.9: Israel subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013. . 293
2007 performance. 294
ARPU and revenues 295
Figure 6.10: Israel ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 295
2007 performance. 296
Market developments. . 297
Regulatory developments. . 297
Network and service developments. 297
Jordan298
Total subscriptions growth. 298
Figure 6.11: Jordan subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 298
2007 performance. 300
Figure 6.12: Jordan subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 301
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 301
Figure 6.13: Jordan prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 301
2007 performance. 301
Technology mix 302
Figure 6.14: Jordan subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013303
2007 performance. 304
ARPU and revenues 304
Figure 6.15: Jordan ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 304
2007 performance. 305
Market developments. . 305
Licensing and spectrum . . 305
Other network and service developments . . 306
Saudi Arabia 307
Total market subscriptions 307
Figure 6.16: Saudi Arabia subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 307
2007 performance. 308
Figure 6.17: Saudi Arabia subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 309
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 309
Figure 6.18: Saudi Arabia prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 309
2007 performance. 310
Technology mix 310
Figure 6.19: Saudi Arabia subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013. 310
2007 performance. 312
ARPU and revenues 313
Figure 6.20: Saudi Arabia ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 313
2007 performance. 314
Market developments. . 314
Licensing and spectrum . . 314
Other network and service developments . . 315
Turkey . . 316
Total subscriptions growth. 316
Figure 6.21: Turkey subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 316
2007 performance. 318
Figure 6.22: Turkey subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 318
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 319
Figure 6.23: Turkey prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013. 319
2007 performance. 319
Technology mix 320
Figure 6.24: Turkey subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 320
2007 performance. 321
ARPU and revenues 321
Figure 6.25: Turkey ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 321
2007 performance. 322
XIV
Market developments. . 323
Regulatory developments. . 323
Licensing and spectrum . . 323
Network and service developments. 324
C H A P T E R 7
N O R T H A M E R I C A . . 325
Regional market forecasts 325
Total subscriptions growth. 325
Figure 7.1: North America subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 325
2007 performance. 326
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 327
Figure 7.2: North America prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013. . 327
2007 performance. 327
Technology mix 328
Figure 7.3: North America subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 328
2007 performance. 330
ARPU and revenues . . 331
Figure 7.4: North America ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 331
2007 performance. 331
Figure 7.5: North America mobile subscription forecasts by country, 2007-2013 332
Canada . . 333
Total subscriptions growth. 333
Figure 7.6: Canada subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 333
2007 performance. 334
Figure 7.7: Canada subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 335
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 335
Figure 7.8: Canada prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 335
2007 performance. 336
Technology mix 336
Figure 7.9: Canada subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013337
2007 performance. 339
ARPU and revenues 340
Figure 7.10: Canada ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 340
2007 performance. 341
Market developments. . 342
Licensing and spectrum . . 342
Network and service developments. 343
Other network and service developments . . 343
US 344
Total subscriptions growth. 344
Figure 7.11: US subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 344
2007 performance. 346
Figure 7.12: US subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013. 346
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 347
Figure 7.13: US prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 347
2007 performance. 348
Technology mix 349
Figure 7.14: US subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 349
2007 performance. 352
XV
ARPU and revenues 353
Figure 7.15: US ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 353
2007 performance. 355
Market developments. . 356
Regulatory developments. . 356
Licensing and spectrum . . 356
Network and service developments. 356
C H A P T E R 8
W E S T E R N E U R O P E . 359
Regional market forecasts 359
Total subscriptions growth. 359
Figure 8.1: Western Europe subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013. . 359
2007 performance. 360
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 361
Figure 8.2: Western Europe prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 361
2007 performance. 362
Technology mix 362
Figure 8.3: Western Europe subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 363
2007 performance. 364
ARPU and revenues 365
Figure 8.4: Western Europe ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 365
2007 performance. 365
Figure 8.5: Western Europe mobile subscription forecasts by country, 2007-2013367
France . . 368
Total subscriptions growth. 368
Figure 8.6: France subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 368
2007 performance. 369
Figure 8.7: France subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 369
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 369
Figure 8.8: France prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 369
2007 performance. 370
Technology mix 370
Figure 8.9: France subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013. 371
2007 performance. 372
ARPU and revenues 373
Figure 8.10: France ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 373
2007 performance. 374
Market developments. . 375
Regulatory developments. . 375
Licensing and spectrum . . 375
Network sharing . . 376
Other network and service developments . . 376
Germany. 377
Total subscriptions growth. 377
Figure 8.11: Germany subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 377
2007 performance. 378
Figure 8.12: Germany subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 378
XVI
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 379
Figure 8.13: Germany prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 379
2007 performance. 379
Technology mix 380
Figure 8.14: Germany subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 380
2007 performance. 381
ARPU and revenues 382
Figure 8.15: Germany ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 382
2007 performance. 383
Market developments. . 384
Licensing and spectrum . . 384
Other network and service developments . . 384
Greece . . 385
Total subscriptions growth. 385
Figure 8.16: Greece subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . 385
2007 performance. 386
Figure 8.17: Greece subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . 386
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 386
Figure 8.18: Greece prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 386
2007 performance. 386
Technology mix 387
Figure 8.19: Greece subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 387
2007 performance. 388
ARPU and revenues 389
Figure 8.20: Greece ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . 389
2007 performance. 389
Market developments. . 391
Regulatory developments. . 391
Network and service developments. 391
Italy. . 392
Total subscriptions growth. 392
Figure 8.21: Italy subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 392
2007 performance. 393
Figure 8.22: Italy subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 393
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 393
Figure 8.23: Italy prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 393
2007 performance. 394
Technology mix 394
Figure 8.24: Italy subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 395
2007 performance. 396
ARPU and revenues 396
Figure 8.25: Italy ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 396
2007 performance. 397
Market developments. . 398
Regulatory developments. . 398
Licensing and spectrum . . 398
MVNOs 398
Network sharing . . 399
Other network and service developments . . 399
XVII
The Netherlands 400
Total subscriptions growth. 400
Figure 8.26: The Netherlands subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 400
2007 performance. 401
Figure 8.27: The Netherlands subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 401
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 401
Figure 8.28: The Netherlands prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 401
2007 performance. 402
Technology mix 402
Figure 8.29: The Netherlands subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . 403
2007 performance. 404
ARPU and revenues 404
Figure 8.30: The Netherlands ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 404
2007 performance. 405
Market developments. . 406
Licensing and spectrum . . 406
Outsourcing . . 406
Other network and service developments . . 407
Spain 408
Total subscriptions growth. 408
Figure 8.31: Spain subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 408
2007 performance. 409
Figure 8.32: Spain subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 . . 409
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 409
Figure 8.33: Spain prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 . 409
2007 performance. 410
Technology mix 411
Figure 8.34: Spain subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 411
2007 performance. 412
ARPU and revenues 413
Figure 8.35: Spain ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 . . 413
2007 performance. 413
Market developments. . 415
Regulatory developments. . 415
Network sharing . . 415
Other network and service developments . . 415
UK 416
Total mobile subscriptions . 416
Figure 8.36: UK subscription growth forecasts, 2007-2013. 416
2007 performance. 417
Figure 8.37: UK subscription forecasts by operator, 2007-2013 417
Prepaid/postpaid mix. . 417
Figure 8.38: UK prepaid subscription forecasts, 2007-2013 417
2007 performance. 418
Technology mix 419
Figure 8.39: UK subscription forecasts by technology, 2007-2013 . . 419
2007 performance. 420
ARPU and revenues 421
Figure 8.40: UK ARPU and revenue forecasts, 2007-2013 421
2007 performance. 422
XVIII
Market developments. . 423
Regulatory developments. . 423
Licensing and spectrum . . 423
Network sharing . . 424
Mobile broadband . 424
Other network and service developments . . 425
A P P E N D I X 1
Global mobile forecast tables by region . 427
Global mobile subscription forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . 427
Global mobile net addition forecasts by region, 2008-2013. 427
Global mobile annual growth forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . . 427
Global mobile penetration forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . 427
Global mobile prepaid subscription forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . 428
Global mobile annual revenue forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . 428
Global mobile voice revenue forecasts by region, 2008-2013 428
Global mobile data revenue forecasts by region, 2008-2013 428
Global mobile ARPU forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . . 429
Global mobile 2G subscription forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . 429
Global mobile 2.5G subscription forecasts by region, 2008-2013429
Global mobile 3G subscription forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . 429
Global mobile 3.5G+ subscription forecasts by region, 2008-2013 . 430
A P P E N D I X 2
Subscription Forecast Model methodology. . 431
S-Curve theory 431
A simple logistic curve . 431
Country forecast . . 432
Achievable penetration 432
Short-term forecasts (1 year) . . 433
Exponential   434
Long-term forecasts . . 434
Operator market share . 434
Level of retention. . 435
Level of churn . 435
Market net additions . . 435
New entrants per operator . 436
Parity . 436
Aggressiveness 436
First competition . . 437
Technology migration . 438
Migration path 438
Migration model inputs 438
Single technology operators 439

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