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The European mobile broadband market is growing exponentially with demand fuelled by declining prices and improving performance. Berg Insight forecasts that the number of HSPA/LTE mobile broadband subscriptions in 2013 will reach 48.9 million by 2013. Get up to date with the latest developments in this 120 page report in Berg Insight's VAS Research Series.
Executive summary
The European mobile broadband market continues to grow exponentially, with demand fuelled by declining prices and improving performance. Berg Insight estimates that operator revenues from mobile broadband services EU23+2 reached € 2.1 billion in 2007. Meanwhile the fixed broadband market was estimated to have generated € 29.1 billion in revenues with the 100.2 million connections at the end of 2007. Until 2013, the mobile broadband market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 21.7 percent to reach € 6.8 billion.
While the expected high demand from the PC-industry will lead to higher shipment volumes for embedded HSPA/LTE modules, the vast majority of new subscribers will only be occasional users generating lower network ARPU. Furthermore, multi-play propositions bundling mobile broadband with other services are likely to become prevalent.
Mobile broadband terminals are available in different forms and shapes. Four main types have emerged to satisfy different needs, PC-cards, USB-modems, embedded modules and gateways. The first phase in the development of mobile broadband was dominated by PCcards.
PC-cards first emerged for WLAN access and were later adopted for mobile broadband. Huawei commercially introduced the USB modem in 2006 and the product turned out to be what most customers were looking for. In 2007 USB-modems became the dominant device on the expense of PC-cards, and all operators in Western and Central Europe offer the device with their mobile broadband proposals. Embedded modules are developed to enable integration in notebooks and other mobile devices. This type of module is becoming increasingly popular and all large notebook vendors offer models with integrated mobile broadband modules. According to the wireless industry association GSA (Global mobile Suppliers Association) there were 103 notebooks with integrated HSPA in Q1-2008, compared to 43 models one year earlier.
Operators can choose from three different business models for mobile broadband; postpaid subscriptions, prepaid subscriptions and bundling with other telecom services. Postpaid contracts constitute a vast majority of the total subscriptions in Europe, whereas the prepaid model has had little impact so far. Nevertheless the number of prepaid options has increased significantly. Bundles have attracted little attention so far and only a handful operators offer such deals.
Mobile broadband services have several implications related to pricing, international roaming and terms of use. Fair use policies must somehow be implemented to ensure network availability and pricing must be transparent, as well as predictable to the subscribers. International roaming is still largely hindered by prohibitive pricing, making services utterly unattractive to use when abroad.
Virtually all licensed 3G operators in Europe have started to deploy HSPA. By mid-2008, HSPA networks supporting data rates up to 7.2 Mbps were commercially available in most EU countries. During the second half of 2008, the first 14.4 Mbps networks will become operational and for 2009 there are also plans to introduce even faster networks.
Coverage however remains quite limited on most markets, with 3G networks largely being confined to population centres and high-speed HSPA being limited to certain hotspots. Nevertheless, the levels of adoption of mobile broadband in other regions in Europe vary significantly.
In Austria and Portugal, 3G networks account for about one in four broadband connections. Italy, Sweden and Ireland have around 15 percent mobile broadband connections; Germany, Spain and the UK in the range of 5–7 percent; while less developed markets such as France have only a few percent. Most Eastern European countries have relatively high shares as well, even if overall broadband penetration rates tend to be significantly lower than in Western Europe.
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents
List of Figures
Executive summary 1
1 Market environment .3
1.1 Internet usage in Europe 3
1.2 Fixed broadband market overview 4
1.2.1 Technology market shares6
1.2.2 Operator market shares .7
1.3 Mobile communication market overview 9
2 Evolved 3G network technology.13
2.1 Wireless technology roadmap..13
2.1.1 GSM 13
2.1.2 3G networks UMTS/WCDMA – 3GPP Release 99 .14
2.1.3 HSDPA – 3GPP Release 5..15
2.1.4 HSUPA – 3GPP release 617
2.1.5 HSPA+ – 3GPP Release 7 .18
2.1.6 LTE – 3GPP Release 8 .20
2.1.7 Other technologies.23
2.2 Evolution of network infrastructure.24
2.2.1 From traditional to evolved network architecture 24
2.2.2 Improving network backhaul capacity .27
2.2.3 Expansion to new frequency bands..30
2.3 Evolution of wireless chipsets ..31
3 Mobile broadband device vendors 33
3.1 Mobile broadband data terminals and form factors..33
3.1.1 USB-modems 34
3.1.2 PC-cards..35
3.1.3 Embedded modules..35
3.1.4 Gateways .37
3.2 HSPA broadband terminal vendors 38
3.2.1 Huawei..38
3.2.2 Option 39
3.2.3 Novatel Wireless..42
3.2.4 Sierra Wireless..44
3.2.5 4G Systems 45
3.2.6 AnyDATA .45
3.2.7 BandRich.46
3.2.8 Onda Communications 46
3.2.9 Teltonika ..46
3.2.10 ZTE .47
3.2.11 Others 47
3.3 HSPA embedded module vendors.47
3.3.1 Ericsson 48
3.3.2 Qualcomm..49
3.3.3 Others 49
4 Notebook PC integration 51
4.1 The global notebook PC market .51
4.1.1 Market trends 52
4.1.2 Notebook PC vendor market shares.53
4.2 Integration of HSPA modules in notebook PCs ..54
4.3 Notebook PC vendor strategies for HSPA .56
4.3.1 Hewlett Packard ..56
4.3.2 Acer 57
4.3.3 Dell..57
4.3.4 Toshiba.59
4.3.5 Lenovo..59
4.3.6 Fujitsu Siemens 60
4.3.7 Sony ..61
4.3.8 ASUS .61
4.3.9 Panasonic62
4.3.10 Samsung Electronics 62
4.3.11 Dialogue ..62
5 Operator strategies for mobile broadband 63
5.1 Business models .63
5.1.1 Postpaid subscriptions. 63
5.1.2 Prepaid subscriptions ..64
5.1.3 Bundling with other services .64
5.2 Pricing and conditions..64
5.2.1 Pricing ..65
5.2.2 International roaming 65
5.2.3 Terms of use..67
5.3 3 Group. 68
5.4 Deutsche Telekom..70
5.5 France Telecom 73
5.6 KPN Group .75
5.7 Telecom Italia. 76
5.8 Telefónica Group .77
5.9 Telekom Austria 80
5.10 TeliaSonera.81
5.11 Vodafone Group ..84
6 Market forecasts and trends .89
6.1 European market summary 89
6.2 Device market 90
6.2.1 Vendor market shares ..91
6.2.2 Form factor trends..91
6.3 Mobile broadband service market..93
6.3.1 Regional market trends 96
6.3.2 Pricing trends 98
6.3.3 Network technology trends 98
6.3.4 Service convergence trends .99
7 Market profiles: Western Europe and South Africa 101
7.1 Austria.102
7.2 Ireland.104
7.3 Sweden..106
7.4 United Kingdom.109
7.5 International outlook: South Africa ..111
Glossary 117
Index
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Top 10 most popular online activities across Western Europe..4
Figure 1.2: Fixed broadband market data (EU23+2 2007)..5
Figure 1.3: Fixed broadband technology market shares (EU23+2 2007) 6
Figure 1.4: Fixed broadband operators by number of subscribers (EU23+2 2007) ..8
Figure 1.5: Mobile operators by number of subscribers (EU27+2 Q4 2007) .9
Figure 1.6: HSPA deploypment status (EU23+2 Q2-2008) ..11
Figure 2.1: Technical performance data for 3GPP Release 5 (HSDPA)..16
Figure 2.2: Technical performance data for 3GPP Release 6 (HSUPA)..17
Figure 2.3: Theoretical peak data rates by technology 21
Figure 2.4: Average latency for a ping roundtrip .22
Figure 2.5: UMTS network architecture 25
Figure 2.6: LTE network architecture.26
Figure 2.7: UMTS data traffic (Denmark 2005–2007) 28
Figure 3.1: Operator distribution agreements by vendors and form factors (Q2-2008)..33
Figure 3.2: Examples of USB-modem models .34
Figure 3.3: Examples of PC-card models 35
Figure 3.4: Examples of embedded modules for notebook PC integration..36
Figure 3.5: Example of a fixed wireless gateway.37
Figure 3.6: HSPA broadband terminal products by Huawei .39
Figure 3.7: HSPA broadband terminal products by Option ..40
Figure 3.8: HSPA broadband terminal products by Novatel Wireless .42
Figure 3.9: Novatel’s distribution between different form factors (2006/2007) .43
Figure 4.1: Notebook PC shipments (Western Europe 2004–2008) .51
Figure 4.2: Notebook PC vendor market shares (World 2007) 53
Figure 4.3: Number of notebook PC models with integrated HSPA modules (2007/2008)..54
Figure 5.1: Roaming prices per MB for selected mobile operators (Q2-2008) 66
Figure 5.2: Roaming packages from selected mobile operators (Q2-2008). 66
Figure 5.3: Examples of usage policies for mobile broadband67
Figure 5.4: 3 Ireland mobile broadband prepaid tariff (Q2-2008) ..68
Figure 5.5: 3 mobile broadband tariffs by country (Q2-2008) ..69
Figure 5.6: T-Mobile mobile broadband tariffs by country (Q2-2008) ..71
Figure 5.7: Orange mobile broadband tariffs by country (Q2-2008) .74
Figure 5.8: KPN mobile broadband tariffs by country (Q2-2008)75
Figure 5.9: TIM mobile broadband tariffs for Italy (Q2-2008) 76
Figure 5.10: Telefónica Group mobile broadband tariffs by country (Q2-2008) .78
Figure 5.11: Telefónica O2 Czech Republic converged broadband tariff (Q2-2008).79
Figure 5.12: A1 Mobilkom mobile broadband tariff (Q2-2008).81
Figure 5.13: TeliaSonera mobile broadband tariffs by country (Q2-2008).83
Figure 5.14: Vodafone mobile service revenues (Europe FY2008/FY2007)..84
Figure 5.15: Vodafone mobile broadband subscribers (FY2005–FY2008) 85
Figure 5.16: Vodafone mobile broadband tariffs by country (Q2-2008)..87
Figure 6.1: Mobile broadband market summary (Europe 2007–2013) 89
Figure 6.2: Mobile broadband device shipments and revenues (Europe 2007–2013) 90
Figure 6.3: Estimated revenues and shipments by device vendor (Europe/World 2007)..91
Figure 6.4: Shipments of notebooks with embedded HSPA/LTE (Europe 2007–2013) .93
Figure 6.5: Mobile broadband subscribers and operator revenues (Europe 2007–2013).94
Figure 6.6: Mobile broadband market data (EU23+2 2007).95
Figure 6.7: Average monthly fee for mobile broadband service (EU23+2 Q2-2008) ..97
Figure 7.1: Fixed and mobile broadband subscribers by country (Q1-2008) 101
Figure 7.2: Austrian mobile broadband tariffs by operator (Q2-2008) ..103
Figure 7.3: Irish mobile broadband tariffs by operator (Q2-2008)105
Figure 7.4: Swedish mobile broadband tariffs by operator (Q2-2008)..107
Figure 7.5: Mobile data network traffic (Sweden 2004–2007) 108
Figure 7.6: UK mobile broadband tariffs by operator (Q2-2008)..110
Figure 7.7: Broadband technology market shares (South Africa Q1-2008)112
Figure 7.8: Vodacom mobile broadband tariffs (May 2008)114
Figure 7.9: MTN mobile broadband prepaid tariffs (May 2008) 115
For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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