Home > Market Research > Information & Communications Technology > RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2008-2018

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Market Study
Published: May 2008
Pages: 272
Tables: 185
From: GBP 1750.00   Buy Now!
Research from: IDTechEx
Sector: Information & Communications Technology

This report is the summation of extensive new research in late 2007 and early 2008 including interviews with RFID adopters and solution providers in the various applicational RFID markets, giving an unprecedented level of insight into the total RFID industry and what is really happening.

Purchasers receive an electronic PDF and (optional) printed copy of this 266 page report, a separate functional spreadsheet of the forecasts, six months access to the monthly IDTechEx journal RFID Analyst worth $500 and access to report updates throughout the year.
 
In 2008 the value of the entire RFID market will be $5.29 billion, up from $4.93 billion in 2007. This includes tags, readers and software/services for RFID cards, labels, fobs and all other form factors. By far the biggest segment of this is RFID cards, and $2.26 billion of the total $5.29 billion being spent on all other forms of RFID - from RFID labels to active tags.
 
The tagging of pallets and cases as demanded by retailers (mostly in the US) will use approximately 325 million RFID labels in 2008, but we see strong take off in retail outside mandates, such as from Marks & Spencer who have used well over 100 million RFID tags to date. The tagging of animals (such as pigs and sheep) is quickly taking off as it becomes a legal requirement in many more territories, with 90 million tags being used for this sector in 2008. This is happening in regions such as China and Australasia. In total, 2.16 billion tags will be sold in 2008 versus 1.74 billion in 2007 and 1.02 billion in 2006.
 
This comprehensive report from IDTechEx gives the complete picture with detailed forecasts at a price unmatched by others.
 
Full analysis by each market is given in great detail including in-depth historic data. Over 200 companies are profiled in this report. We give detailed ten year forecasts of the volumes of tags required, their value and the total market value for the following market segments:
 
PASSIVE RFID
Drugs
Other Healthcare
Retail apparel
Consumer goods
Tires
Postal
Books
Manufacturing parts, tools
Archiving (documents/samples)
Military
Retail CPG Pallet/case
Smart cards/payment key fobs
Smart tickets
Air baggage
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
Animals
Vehicles
People (excluding other sectors)
Passport page/secure documents
Other tag applications
 
ACTIVE RFID / BATTERY-ASSISTED
Pharma/Healthcare
Cold retail supply chain
Consumer goods
Postal
Manufacturing parts, tools
Archiving (samples)
Military
Retail CPG Pallet/case
Shelf Edge Labels
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
Vehicles
People (excluding other sectors)
Car clickers
Other tag applications

Market analysis by a huge number of parameters

Using new, unique information researched globally by IDTechEx technical experts, we analyse the RFID market in many different ways, with over 180 tables and figures. They include detailed ten year projections for EPC vs non-EPC, high value niche markets, active vs passive, readers, markets by frequency, markets by geographical region, label vs non label, chip vs chipless, markets by application, tag format and tag location. Cumulative sales of RFID are analyzed as are the major players and unmet opportunities. It covers the emergence of new products, legal and demand pressures and impediments for the years to come.
 
Which sectors are booming and which are under performing? This report examines each sector in turn. Those doing well in numbers sold are sometimes much less impressive in dollars taken and vice versa.

Highly profitable 'niche' markets analyzed

Major players now and in the future in the various parts of the value chain are identified and the big orders and milestones now and in the future are analysed, such as the rollout of the $6 billion national ID card system in China. Of course, not everyone will want to serve the severely price constrained, highest volume markets. For them, we examine many niches of at least one billion dollars potential that are emerging and many smaller opportunities where there is even less competition. They include:
Passports in the face of new terrorism resulting in new laws
Livestock and food traceability in the face of new laws, bioterrorism, avian flu, BSE, fraud with subsidies etc.
Intermodal containers (Smart and Secure Tradelanes and other initiatives)
Healthcare
Those in prison and on parole
Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN), for warning of natural disasters, military and other purposes
 
Stay Updated with Free IDTechEx Research

All purchases of this report include six months access to the independent IDTechEx journal RFID Analyst, keeping you updated with the topic for the months to come, and one hour of consultancy from IDTechEx by telephone or email.

Feedback

Here are comments from a few clients who have purchased this report:
 
"We found the report to be extremely helpful and well done. We would highly recommend it to anyone interested in learning more about the RFID market" Daniel Luch, CEO, Ertek
 
"PolyIC uses idtechex reports with its deep understanding, view and analysis to update its own market models and estimations" Wolfgang Mildner, Managing Director, PolyIC
 
"We have found the RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2007-2017 report to be the most insightful and in-depth analysis of global RFID developments. Unlike many other reports, this report really paints the complete picture. It is clearly based on unmatched understanding of the RFID industry." Eelco de Jong, RFID Domain Lead, LogicaCMG

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Definitions
1.1.1. RFID
1.1.2. Chipless/printed RFID
1.1.3. Passive and active RFID
1.2. Tags have different shapes
1.3. The RFID value chain
1.4. Where tags are placed
1.5. The show so far - 1945 to 2008
1.5.1. Cumulative sales by applicational category
1.5.2. Cumulative sales active vs passive
1.5.3. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
1.5.4. Dominant RFID chip suppliers
1.6. Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2007
1.6.1. Progress in 2005
1.6.2. Progress in 2006
1.6.3. Progress in 2007
1.7. Ultimate potential
1.7.1. Potential for different applications
1.7.2. Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
1.7.3. Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve)
1.8. Legal push
1.9. Demand pull
1.10. Constraints on market growth
1.10.1. Impediments to highest volume RFID
2. MARKET BY SPECIFICATION AND EPC RFID
2.1. League table of RFID specifications
2.2. EPCglobal
2.3. Progress with EPC adoption so far
2.4. Forecasting EPC adoption
2.5. Choice of tagging package or product
2.6. EPC successes
2.7. EPC versus Non EPC
3. MARKETS BY COUNTRY
3.1. Number of RFID projects by country
3.2. Ongoing importance of the US market
3.3. RFID across four continents
3.4. Projected sales of RFID tags by territory
3.5. Increasing importance of the East Asian market
3.5.1. A view of the RFID market size in Thailand from the Thailand Forum.
4. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID
4.1. Passive vs active
4.2. Sub categories of passive tag
4.3. Project cost, size and payback
4.4. Passive market by applicational sector
4.5. The main things that are passive tagged
4.6. Passive RFID market by range
4.7. New passive technologies create new markets
4.7.1. Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags
4.7.2. Price advantage the main driver of market gain
5. MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID
5.1. Sub categories of active tag
5.2. Project cost, size and payback
5.3. Active market by applicational sector
5.4. The main things that are active tagged
5.5. Active RFID market by range
5.6. Active RFID market by battery type
5.7. New active technologies create new markets
5.7.1. Hand-held homing devices
5.7.2. New markets - Smart Active Labels
5.7.3. An example of massive 'niches'
5.8. Technologies facilitating growth
5.9. Forecasts for active RFID tags
5.10. Forecasts for systems
5.10.1. The spend on active RFID systems
5.10.2. Active RFID players
6. MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS
6.1. Overview
6.2. Interrogator numbers
6.3. Interrogator price
6.4. Interrogator market value
7. MARKETS BY FREQUENCY
7.1. Spread of tag sales
7.2. Passive frequencies
7.3. Active frequencies
8. MARKET VALUE BY POSITION IN VALUE CHAIN: INTERROGATORS, SOFTWARE, SERVICES ETC
8.1. Market split by position
8.2. Markets for labels, cards and tickets
8.3. Forecasts by tag structures
8.4. NFC, Smart card and ticket projections
8.5. Markets by location of tag - item, pallet / case, etc
8.5.1. Item, pallet / case tagging vs smart cards
8.6. Forecasts 2008-2018
8.6.2. Rationale behind each forecast
8.6.3. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and other possibilities - Malaysia and Korea timelines to 2010
9. MARKET BY APPLICATIONAL SECTOR
9.1. Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector
9.2. Future trend of projects for each applicational sector
9.3. Market size of tags by applicational category
9.4. Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector
9.5. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
9.6. Postal and courier services
9.7. Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods
9.8. Military and federal
9.9. Airlines and Airports
9.10. Libraries
9.11. Secure access
9.12. Laundry/ rented textiles
9.12.1. State of the art
9.12.2. Payback
9.12.3. Technical requirements and trends
9.12.4. Contrast in store apparel tagging
9.12.5. Laundry tag suppliers
9.12.6. Addressable market
9.12.7. Forecasts
10. LARGEST ORDERS, PRODUCTS, PLAYERS AND OVERSUPPLY/ UNDERSUPPLY: MILESTONES IN FUTURE
10.1. Dynamics of the RFID value chain
10.2. Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future
10.2.1. Largest suppliers of chips
10.2.2. Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume
10.2.3. Largest suppliers of software and services
10.3. Sectors potentially oversupplied or undersupplied
10.3.1. Production capacity for tags
10.3.2. Over and undersupply along the value chain 2007-2017
10.4. Milestones and timelines 2008-2020
10.4.1. Milestones 2008-2020
10.5. To learn more
 APPENDIX 1: RFID SOLUTION PROVIDERS
 APPENDIX 2: EPCGLOBAL AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS
 APPENDIX 3: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS
 APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY
 TABLES
1.1. Largest suppliers to date
1.2. Where RFID tags are placed - categories used
1.3. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category by the end of 2007 in millions
1.4. The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions
1.5. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2007 in millions
1.6. Deliveries of chipless tags to date by company
1.7. The dominant RFID tag and chip suppliers to start of 2007
1.8. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2005
1.9. Value of RFID active tag market in 2005
1.10. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2006
1.11. Value of RFID active tag market in 2006
1.12. Value Chain 2006
1.13. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2007
1.14. Value of RFID active tag market in 2007
1.15. Value Chain 2007
1.16. Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2025 of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly.
1.17. Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2025 for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly.
1.18. Examples of laws and mandates encouraging RFID
1.19. Costs per annum for barcodes
1.20. The main impediments to highest volume RFID
2.1. The pecking order of RFID specifications by RFID tag expenditure is shown below
2.2. Reasons why an organization may want to use EPC
2.3. Reasons why an organization may wish not to use EPC
2.4. When industries may adopt EPC RFID in at least hundreds of millions yearly. Estimates by IDTechEx
2.5. Market for EPC related RFID only - tags, readers, middleware, services etc, in US dollars billions
3.1. Largest number of RFID case studies by application and continent
3.2. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag format and continent
3.3. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag location and continent
3.4. Largest number of RFID case studies by frequency and continent
3.5. Number of tags in billions by territory 2008, 2013, 2018
3.6. Percentage share of numbers of tags by territory 2008, 2013, 2018
3.7. Value, in billions of dollars, of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2008, 2013, 2018
3.8. Percentage share of value of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2008, 2013, 2018
3.9. Leading markets by country for RFID in billions of dollars, systems including tags
3.10. Value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2008, 2013, 2018
3.11. Percentage value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2008, 2013, 2018
3.12. Capturing the national growth: RFID annual market value (in US$ million)
4.1. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions
4.2. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by average tag price in cents
4.3. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars
4.4. Projected tag assembly costs according to The Auto ID Center
4.5. Historical sales of chipless RFID tags
4.6. Chipless percentage share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2008 to 2018. Projection by IDTechEx
4.7. Chipless share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2008 to 2018. Projection by IDTechEx
5.1. Comparison of some of the typical features of passive vs active RFID
5.2. Unit price of expensive vs low cost tags for active RFID 2007
5.3. Examples of overall spend vs tag spend for some large RFID projects so far
5.4. Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used
5.5. Active RFID in the prison and parole service
5.6. Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service
5.7. Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2008-2018
5.8. Average active tag price per application in US cents 2008-2018
5.9. Value of active tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Millions)
5.10. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2008-2018 in millions of dollars
5.11. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems including tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2008-2018 in millions of dollars
5.12. Sectors, locations and application examples of Active RFID players
6.1. RFID enabled cellphones worldwide - 2008, 2013, 2018
6.2. Market for RFID interrogators by application, number millions
6.3. Market for RFID interrogators by application, reader price US dollars
6.4. Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions
7.1. The spread of tag numbers by frequency to the start of 2008
7.2. The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2008
7.3. The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2013
7.4. The spread of tag sales % by frequency forecast for 2018
7.5. Future favourite frequencies by format and application
7.6. Active only in 2008
7.7. Active only in 2018
8.1. The split of the market by position in the value chain by percentage share
8.2. The split of the market by position in the value chain by value
8.3. Breakdown of the tag market by number of tags in millions
8.4. Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by numbers
8.5. Breakdown of the tag market value of tags by form ($ billion)
8.6. Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by value
8.7. Total RFID market value ($ billion)
8.8. Total RFID market percentage of tags by value
8.9. Comparison of NFC enabled devices and contactless smart cards.
8.10. Global shipments of RFID enabled phones in millions by region 2008-2018
8.11. The good and the bad of the different proposed locations of NFC functionality in mobile phones.
8.12. Examples of NFC location in phones used in various trials and limited rollouts at the end of 2008
8.13. Contactless cards market by applicational sector 2008-2018, number millions
8.14. Unit price of unprinted, unprogrammed contactless cards by applicational sector, US dollars
8.15. Value of global market for contactless cards 2008-2018, US dollars million
8.16. Value of global market for contactless cards and their systems, US dollars million
8.17. Ticket number and unit value 2008-2018
8.18. Examples of leading transport SVC card schemes
8.19. Some of the largest card and ticket schemes in China.
8.20. IDTechEx estimates of the RFID sales of some of the leaders in RFID cards and tickets, their parts and their systems in 2008
8.21. Volume sales of tags by application 2008-2018
8.22. Average tag price per application in US cents 2008-2018
8.23. Value of tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Million)
8.24. Rationale behind item and pallet / case forecasts
8.25. Some possibly substantial new locations for RFID tags
9.1. IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase January 2008 -number of cases by applicational sector
9.2. Future trends for the applicational sectors with the most projects
9.3. RFID Tag projections by market 2008-2018
9.4. RFID systems (excluding tags) projections by market 2008-2018
9.5. Benefits most commonly sought and payback most commonly claimed by sector.
9.6. Some laundry tag suppliers
10.1. Examples of some of the larger RFID suppliers and their estimated sales and profit status
10.2. Examples of fundraising in 2005-2007 by 27 RFID businesses
10.3. Cumulative RFID tag sales by number to beginning of 2008
10.4. Examples of dominant companies in the chip to label value chain in 2007
10.5. Examples of companies dominating in the chip to label value chain in 2010
10.6. The trend for RFID software and services in 2008 and 2018
10.7. Some of the companies offering and preparing to offer RFID tags in very high volumes and their current status.
10.8. Global production capacity for RFID tags suitable for the highest volume demand 2005 - 2007
10.9. Over and undersupply that existed in the RFID value chain in 2006/7
10.10. Parts of the RFID value chain that may be over or undersupplied 2008-2018
10.11. Milestones 2007-2020
 FIGURES
1.1. The RFID value chain
1.2. An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag
1.3. Technologies appropriate to the different levels of tag cost and volume.
1.4. The adoption curve 2004-2018
1.5. The overall price-volume sensitivity envelope
1.6. RFID from cradle to grave
1.7. Marks & Spencer reusable plastic trays for food
1.8. Marks & Spencer paybacks
1.9. Costs per annum for RF Tags
2.1. Spend on RFID systems including tags in 2008
2.2. Procter & Gamble forecast for EPC CPG tagging at pallet, case and item level 2003 to 2010
3.1. Top ten countries by number of case studies on the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase Q1 2008
4.1. Passive RFID applications in packaging and containers by range
5.1. Passive RFID compared with the various types of active RFID
5.2. Printed batteries from Infinite Power Solutions and the concept by the Smart Active Labels Consortium of using RFID smart labels with similar batteries to boost range in warehouse environments.
5.3. RFID protecting keys against theft or misuse.

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