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Market Study
Published: January 2008
Pages: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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Research from: Analysys Mason
Sector: Mobile Strategies

3G networks are still relatively new; just 6% of GSM/UMTS subscribers were on 3G networks at September 2007. In spite of this, the 3GPP standards body has already planned a series of enhancements to UMTS, which will increase throughput and capacity, improve coverage and decrease system delay. These enhancements include HSDPA, HSUPA, HSPA+ and LTE. Cellular infrastructure vendors are strongly promoting these enhancements to drive their sales, but there is uncertainty about what these technologies will realistically deliver and when, and if, they should be deployed.

3G Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells investigates the evolution options for mobile network operators, in order to identify the realistic timescales and capabilities of 3G enhancements. It considers how 3G network evolution will be affected by a number of key developments, including indoor base stations (especially femtocells), broadcasting networks (such as DVB-H), alternative wireless broadband technologies (such as WiMAX) and the emergence of network sharing.

3G Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells reviews the current state of HSDPA and the services offered by operators, and then considers each of the key 3G enhancements, quantifying the services and customer usage profiles that can realistically be supported. The report models a typical 3G network in order to evaluate the match between service requirements and network capabilities, considering usage of each service type and the split of indoor and outdoor use. The report considers the best choice of 3G evolution path and assesses the broader implications of this for mobile network operators and equipment vendors.

3G Network Evolution from 2007 to 2012: HSPA+, LTE, WiMAX and femtocells answers your key questions:

- What is the current state of deployment of 3G technology and enhancements?
- What are the technology evolution options for 3G network operators?
- What are the realistic capabilities of HSDPA, HSUPA, HSPA+ and LTE in a typical network implementation?
- How will the advent of femtocells and broadcasting networks affect 3G technology choices by cellular network operators?
- Which enhancement represents the best choice for operators: HSPA+ or LTE?
- Is LTE a better choice than WiMAX, and how strong is the business case for LTE? Will there be a role for WiMAX as 3G networks evolve?
- How does the emergence of network sharing affect network evolution?
- What are the implications for equipment vendors, in terms of product sales?

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Table of Contents

0 Summary
1 A number of factors call into question the need for 3G enhancements
2 3G networks are still relatively new but a series of enhancements is already defined
2.1 3G networks currently serve only a small proportion of mobile users
2.2 There has been strong momentum in 3GPP to improve the performance of UMTS
2.3 3G enhancements can significantly improve performance, but maximum theoretical figures can be misleading
2.4 HSDPA has already been widely deployed but HSUPA is still emerging
2.5 Commercial services based on HSDPA and HSUPA are still at an early stage of development
2.6 HSPA+ and LTE could both be deployed by 2010 if there is commercial justification
3 Several factors could reduce the need for further 3G enhancements
3.1 Displacement of fixed broadband services by cellular broadband services will be limited
3.2 Indoor base stations are a cost-effective means of providing high quality indoor cellular services
3.3 Many MNOs will utilise broadcasting networks to deliver mobile TV and radio services
4 Modelling reveals that further 3G enhancements may not be required
5 HSPA+ will have a bigger role than LTE or WiMAX in the next five years
5.1 Despite the hype surrounding LTE and WiMAX, HSPA+ will be deployed more widely in the next five years
5.2 LTE has important advantages over Mobile WiMAX and will be deployed in particular circumstances
5.3 Network sharing will enhance the viability of deploying LTE for some MNOs
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List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1.1 Breakdown of mobile service data consumption between indoor and outdoor usage, for an example service mix, 2007 to 2012
Figure 2.1 Realistic downlink data rates likely to be experienced by 3G users with different UMTS radio interfaces in a range of radio conditions
Figure 2.2 Realistic uplink data rates likely to be experienced by 3G users with different UMTS radio interfaces in a range of radio conditions
Figure 2.3 Typical latency for W-CDMA and UMTS enhancements
Figure 2.4 Real examples of user data throughput and latency for HSDPA inside typical houses
Figure 2.5 Estimated network capacities for W-CDMA, HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE for a typical 10 000 base station network deployment
Figure 2.6 Number of W-CDMA, HSDPA and HSUPA networks worldwide
Figure 2.7 Number of countries with W-CDMA, HSDPA and HSUPA networks
Figure 3.1 Forecast of household penetration of fixed broadband services for selected countries, 2007 to 2012
Figure 3.2 Estimated usage of mobile TV services based on DVB-H trials
Figure 3.3 Estimated data consumption of mobile TV services based on DVB-H trials
Figure 4.1 Structure of modelling of 3G service demand and technology capability
Figure 4.2 Breakdown of mobile service data consumption between different service types, for an example service mix, 2007 to 2012
Figure 4.3 Breakdown of mobile service data consumption between indoor and outdoor usage, for an example service mix, 2007 to 2012
Figure 2.1 Characteristics of W-CDMA and major enhancements to the UMTS radio interface, defined by 3GPP
Figure 2.2 Examples of mobile broadband services offered by UK MNOs
Figure 4.1 Key attributes of modelled service mix in 2012
Figure 5.1 Comparison of the performance of MIMO and non-MIMO WLAN equipment
About the authors

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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