Home > Market Research > Mobile Markets > The Next Billion: Strategies for driving growth and making profits in low-ARPU mobile markets
The Next Billion: Strategies for driving growth and making profits in low-ARPU mobile markets asks a fundamental question. Since the first mobile phones reached the hands of consumers at the end of the 1980s, it took approximately 15 years for the first 25 percent of the human race to subscribe to mobile services, then the next 25 percent look set to sign up in just 4 short years. By mid 2008 the world is forecast to cross the highly significant 50 percent penetration mark. This detailed market study looks at where the growth is set to come from after that. Who will be "the next billion"? Who are they, where do they live and how much money will they have to spend on mobile services? This in-depth market study will answer these questions complete with detailed demographic analysis of the top growth markets and the strategies network operators are using to penetrate those populations.
This report has studied the so-called 'next billion' in detail and we have identified the following:
They are actually 1.5 billion in number
They will take the world from 50 percent penetration to 75 percent penetration in just 4 years
65 percent of them live in Asia, not in Africa as many previously expected
Almost 70 percent of them live in largely rural communities
We have studied the top 10 growth markets of the next 4 years and we have identified that 9 out of 10 of those markets have one key defining factor in common - they are all low income per-capita markets compared to the wealthy nations that have made up the bulk of the first 3 billion mobile subscribers.
We look at these country markets in detail and identify the extent of the urban and rural communities in these countries. We look in detail at the one wealthy nation among the top 10 - the United States. This report explains how the wealthiest nation in the world is forecast to be the third biggest growth market of the next 4 years, and what that is worth in financial terms. The report forecasts subscriber growth, ARPU to 2011 and service revenues from 2006 to 2011, as the US marches towards a USD 200 billion Dollar market.
The report analyzes what strategies are being used to penetrate low-ARPU rural markets. As rural subscribers in India and Bangladesh head towards monthly ARPU of USD 4 or USD 3 Dollars, can MNOs maintain margins? Are there cost effective strategies for deploying mobile networks into sparsely populated rural communities with such low returns forecast? Will the sheer size of the market drive the economics forwards? We forecast that 5 of our top 10 growth markets are in South Asia. We further forecast that these 5 big Asian growth markets will add over 815 million new mobile subscribers over the next 4 years, equivalent to the entire population of the European Union, the United States, Australia and New Zealand all added together! That's 386 new mobile subscribers every minute from now until the end of 2011, 24 hours per day, 365 days per year.
Understand these exciting growth opportunities and the billions of Dollars in service revenues that will be generated. Analyze low-cost handset strategies, network sharing business models, tariff structures and services tailored to rural consumers, the opportunities for non-voice services, SMS, Internet access and other VAS. Al this and more is covered in detail in this essential new market report.
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Table of Contents
Overview
Introduction
Demographic Analysis: Defining the Next Billion, who they are and where they live
China
India
United States of America
Pakistan
Nigeria
Brazil
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Mexico
Iran
Business Models to Penetrate Low-Income Populations
Introduction
Case Study 1: America Movil
Case Study 2: Telefonica Moviles
Case Study 3: China Mobile
Case Study 4: Smart Communications
Case Study 5: Bharti Airtel
Case Study 6: Rural Payphones
Low-Cost Handset Initiatives
Overview
Initiatives by Handset Vendors
Initiatives by Chip-Set Vendors and other OEMs
Initiatives by Mobile Operators
Conclusion
Developments - Mobile Technology and Infrastructure
Case Study 1: Nokia Siemens Networks Village Connection
Case Study 2: Mobile Infrastructure Sharing
Case Study 3: Alternative Sources of Power
Case Study 4: Next Generation Mobile Base Stations
Case Study 5: Low Frequency Spectrum
Worldwide Regulatory Scenario
Regulatory Scenario - India
Regulatory Scenario - Pakistan
Regulatory Scenario - Nigeria
Summary and Conclusions
Appendices
Glossary
Portio Research Classifications
Companies Mentioned in this Report
About the Authors
Also available from Portio Research Limited
For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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