Home > Market Research > Networks & Infrastructure > The Chile Telecommunications Report 2008

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Sector: Networks & Infrastructure

This Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational handset manufacturers and equipment vendors, domestic fixed-line and mobile operators, and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments.

Independent 5-year telecommunications forecast.

Original telecommunications market research and telecommunications sector trend analysis for the national telecommunications industry.

Competitive intelligence, regional telecommunications company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic telecommunications companies.

The Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the national telecommunications industry.

" The Asia Telecommunications Report is used for benchmarking industry views against BMI's independent forecasts; for market research and analysis of industry trends. It also provides competitive intelligence on leading companies. "
Chi-Wen Tsai, Managing Director, ROHDE & SCHWARZ Taiwan Ltd

Key Benefits of Report

-Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the national telecommunications market.
-Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
-Exploit Latest Competitive Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.

Executive Summary
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and trend analysis, covering ICT, fixed-line, mobile and internet markets, and headline news of key industry events from the latest quarter.

Market Overview
At-a-glance outlook of the structure, size and value of the industry, including an overview of key players and a snapshot of regional penetration rates for fixed-line, mobile and internet markets.

Business Environment Rankings
BMI provides a cross-border analysis of telecoms regulatory systems across regional markets, and their investor prospects, discussing the merits and downfalls of each country’s business environment, and ranking them in order of competitiveness. The rankings take into account industry factors, such as Market Maturity, Growth Potential, Competitive Environment and Licensing Framework in addition to BMI’s political and economic risk ratings.

BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2012 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone Lines ('000); Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants;
Cellular Telephony - Phone Subscribers ('000); Mobile Phone Subscribers/ 100 Inhabitants; Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 Fixed Line Subscribers;
Internet Markets - Internet Users ('000); Internet Users/100 Inhabitants; Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000); Broadband Internet Subscribers/100 Inhabitants;
Multimedia Markets - PCs ('000); PCs/100 Inhabitants; TV households ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers/100 inhabitants; Cable TV subscribers ('000s); Direct-to-Home Subscribers ('000s)
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and contact details, business activity, leading products and services, and a record of all recent foreign direct investments and projects.

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Telecomunications Sector of Chile

There were some promising developments in Chile's telecoms markets in Q307, notably the licensing of the country's first mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). Blue Two, a WiFi and Bluetooth operator owned by alternative fixed-line operator Telsur, and Dotcom, a locally owned VoIP operator, have both received 30-year licences to provide mobile services. Meanwhile, Nextel's parent company has confirmed an US$80mn investment programme to roll out an ESMR network in Chile, following Nextel Chile's December 2006 launch of roaming services for corporate customers.

The auction for 3G frequencies is expected to take place in Q108, although the three existing mobile operators are all likely to be offering some form of 3G service by YE07. Regulators are considering whether to offer the existing operators small blocks of 45MHz spectrum in order to establish a fourth operator in the market, which would focus specifically on 3G. However, BMI is sceptical that a fourth player can be tempted to invest in an already competitive and well-developed market, particularly given that MVNO licences are now available.

In addition to its MVNO licence, Telsur, which is consolidating its position as the country's third-largest broadband provider, launched IPTV services in July, just one month after Telefónica Chile's IPTV offering. Further competition in the triple play market will now come from Telmex, which followed its March 2007 launch of fixed-wireless and broadband services with the acquisition of pay-TV provider ZAP TV in August. BMI would not be surprised to hear of further pay-TV acquisitions by Telmex in the coming months, a strategy it has pursued in Colombia and Peru as a way into the lucrative triple play market.

BMI forecasts for mobile market growth have been revised upwards as it now seems clear that growth in 2007 is following a similar pattern and similar rates to 2006. We currently forecast penetration will reach 88.7% by YE07. However, it remains to be seen how much of an impact the newly licensed MVNOs will have on the market and we have made only conservative upwards adjustments for 2008 and beyond at this time. We currently anticipate the first MVNO services will become available in late 2007/early 2008 and that operators will target the lower end of the market. In a market with lower penetration BMI would expect such a launch would trigger a price war among operators and drive considerably stronger growth.

However, with penetration in Chile already over 83%, the existing operators could be happy to let the MVNOs service the lower-spend market and focus attention on higher revenue-generating postpaid customers, a strategy already being pursued by all three operators, as well as on the deployment of 3G services. If this is the case, we would expect only slightly faster growth as much of the subscriber growth at the MVNOs would be offset by lower growth at the existing players. Likewise, we do not expect the availability of 3G services will have a noticeable impact on the market as the vast majority of subscribers will simply upgrade from 2G offerings. We continue to predict slowing growth rates over the forecast period, but now anticipate 100% penetration will be reached in 2010 with some 17.5mn subscribers and will near 105% in 2011.

Forecasts for the broadband and internet markets are unchanged, with penetration rates for both expected to remain the highest in the region. The broadband market is on track for growth of 30-32% in 2007, which will raise penetration to 8.1% by the end of the year, while internet penetration should near 34%. By 2011, broadband penetration will have doubled to 16.3% and internet usage should gradually increase to nearly 40% penetration.

However, the fixed-line market declined more quickly than originally forecast, falling by 3.2% in 2006 to bring penetration down 0.9 percentage points (pps), to 20.2%. Much of the decline was experienced by Telefónica Chile, although the slowdown has been mitigated by the mid 2006 launch of digital TV services and their bundling with telephony and internet services, as well as by growth among alternative operators. We have, accordingly, revised forecasts downwards and now anticipate Chile's fixed-line market will decline by around 1.5-2% in 2007, seeing penetration drop below 20% to 19.6%. The downward trend will continue, and we anticipate the number of fixed lines will fall below 3mn in 2011, penetration of just over 17%. However, if the MVNOs have a greater impact on the mobile market than is currently envisaged, fixed-mobile substitution will increase and the slowdown in the fixed-line market will be more marked.

Competitive Landscape for Latin America Telecommunications Reports: Sample of Companies Ranked

Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts. BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt. Company SWOTS Covering all leading telecommunications operators and manufacturers operating in each market, including competitive intelligence on geographic presence and competitive positioning against local companies; local market share; leading products, services and technologies; foreign direct investments, projects, merger and acquisition strategies.

* Alcatel Lucent
* America Móvil
* Avantel
* Axtel
* Globacom
* Brasilcell
* Brasil Telecom
* CANTV
* Claro
* Colombia Telecomunicaciones
* Comcel
* CTI Móvil
* Embratel
* Entel
* Ericsson
* Impsat
* Iusacell
* Motorala
* Nextel
* Nokia
* Nortel Networks
* Siemens
* TASA
* Telcel
* Telecom Argentina
* Telecom Italia
* TELESP
* Telmex
* TIM Brasil
* Unifon
* VTR GlobalCom

Network of Latin American Telecommunications Sources

BMI's Latin American Telecommunications Reports are based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, telecommunications industry associations, chambers of commerce and company reports. Information sources include:

* Agência Nacional de Telecomunicações (ANATEL), Brazil
* Asociación Argentina de Televisión por Cable (ATVC), Argentina
* Asociación Chilena de Empresas de Tecnología de Información (ACTI), Chile
* Associação Brasileira da Indústria Elétrica e Eletrônica (ABINEE), Brazil
* Brasil Telecom
* Cámara Nacional de la Industria de Televisión por Cable (CANITEC), Mexico
* Colombia Telecomunicaciones
* Comisión de Regulación de Telecomunicaciones (CRT), Colombia
* Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones (Cofetel), Mexico
* Comisión Nacional de Comunicaciones (CNC), Argentina
* Comisión Nacional de Telecomunicaciones (Conatel), Venezuela
* Compañía Anónima de Teléfonos de Venezuela (CANTV)
* Entel, Chile
* Ericsson
* International Telecommunications Union, (ITU)
* Nokia
* Organismo Supervisor de la Inversión Privada en Telecomunicaciones (OSIPTEL), Peru
* Subsecretaría de Telecomunicaciones (Subtel), Chile
* Telecom Argentina
* America Movil, Mexico
* Telefónica del Peru

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Table of Contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary
Chapter 2 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Fixed-Line

Table: Chilean Telecoms Sector – Fixed lines – Historical Data & Forecasts

Internet

Table: Chilean Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts

Mobile

Table: Chilean Telecoms Sector – Mobiles – Historical Data & Forecasts

Chapter 3 - Macroeconomic Climate
Fundamentally Sound Moderation

Risks To Outlook

Table: Economic Activity – Historical Data And Forecasts

Chapter 4 - Country Snapshot: Chile Demographic Data
Section 1: Population:

Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown

Section 2: Education & Healthcare

Table: Education

Table: Healthcare: Vital Statistics

Table: Healthcare: Expenditure

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators

Table: Consumption and Stratification

Table: Wages per year

Chapter 5 - Business Environment
Latin America

Chile

Chile Telecoms – SWOT Analysis

Chapter 6 - Competitive Landscape
Market Structure

Competitor Analysis

Table: Key Companies: Chile Telecommunications Sector

Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators

Key Players

Fixed-Line

Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview

Internet

Table: Regional Internet Penetration Overview

Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview

Mobile

Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Market Data

Fixed-Line

Table: Chilean Local Access Market, Q206

Table: Chilean DLD and ILD Markets, 2005-2006

Internet

Table: Chilean Broadband Market, Q206

Mobile

Table: Chilean Wireless Market, Net Additions, 2005-6

Table: Chilean Mobile Market, Q206

Industry Developments

Chapter 7 - Company Profiles
Telefónica CTC Chile

Entel

Telefónica Móviles Chile (Movistar)

VTR GlobalCom

Chapter 8 - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts

Telecommunications Industry

Sources

Chapter 9 - Appendix: Regional Demographic Data
Wages (ave per annum), US$

Population

Household Spending Per Capita, US$

Private Consumption Per Capita, US$ PPP

Market Size, GDP, US$bn

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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