Home > Market Research > Broadband & Fixed > Internet Growth 2006 Traffic Internet

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Market Study
Published: October 2006
Pages: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
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Research from: Information Gatekeepers Inc.
Sector: Broadband & Fixed

This report forecasts how much traffic will be carried for the period to the end of this decade, on the Internet backbone and on the total national North American.

Given this statement of purpose for the report, it is interesting to note that there really is no Internet backbone or North American network, in the sense of an individual entity. In the past, one could, indeed, speak of and measure the backbone traffic on the North American network. The old AT&T reported traffic loads between its Class 1 offices and the relative traffic carried on its high-usage subnet. These were real numbers that could be very accurately measured, monitored, and used as the basis of forecasts for growth.

This has all changed with the transformation to a data-based network with multiple owners. Now one is hard pressed to identify exactly what the Internet backbone is, much less to accurately measure the traffic carried on it.

Given this state of confusion and lack of physical reality of an Internet backbone, one may question the value of a report on forecast traffic. However, while the physical reality is no longer identifiable and measurable, the amount and growth of traffic going across our (somewhat imaginary) Internet backbone is still very real and of great importance. It is the growth of this traffic that

Determines the need for equipment additions by the multitudes of carriers contributing to the various segments of this network of networks

-Supports facility additions (fiber and fiber routes)
-Requires additions to cable company networks (for high-speed) data
-Defines the need for higher-speed accesses and all the equipment associated with providing that extra speed
-Supports the ever-increasing need for safety of data, continuity of service, and privacy of data
-Suggests the growing value of advertising and similar activities on the Internet

For all of these reasons, knowledge of the future of traffic on the segments of the network and of total traffic is indispensable to all those involved in making plans for the network and all of its subparts.

We recently published a report, “How Much Bandwidth Is Enough in the Access Network” (available from IGI), addressing the question of how much bandwidth service providers needed to plan for in the last-mile plant. That report evaluated end-user tendencies to use bandwidth for video (primarily) and data access (voice being so small that it is only considered peripherally). This report is a companion report that considers the big picture of how much traffic is carried on the backbone network. The “How Much is Enough ?” report is concerned with micro issues; this report is concerned with macro issues.

This report begins with a discussion of our basic approach to forecasting Internet traffic. It continues with our:

-New forecasts for high-speed access growth
-New forecasts for the high-speed (xDSL, cable modem, and RF) lines and traffic from high-speed access lines
-New forecasts for the various segments of the usage on access lines (email, searches, file sharing, instant messaging, and miscellaneous, as well as subdivisions of some of these)
-New FTTP lines and traffic forecast
-New dial-up data lines forecast and associated traffic forecast
-New international traffic forecasts
-Forecasts for various special segments ? VoIP, other data networks, private lines networks
-Long-distance voice

Finally, the report brings all of the parts together for total network forecasts. As the report proceeds through this list of traffic sources, it provides sketches to illustrate the location of the traffic segment in the network. Major conclusions from the report are presented in a separate section.

The Appendixes provide a discussion of IPTV and a forecast for IPTV traffic. Also, extensive material is in the Appendixes, to help the reader with the various traffic concepts in this report.

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Table of Contents

Introduction
Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
Total Network Traffic
High-Speed Access Lines
High-Speed Access Lines Forecast
Rationale for Updating the High-Speed Access Lines Forecast
New H-S Lines Forecast
Household Penetration – New Forecast
Traffic Forecast for H-S Users
H-S Line Traffic
Rationale for Updating the Traffic Forecast H-S Lines
New H-S per Line Traffic Forecast
Change to 75% of BH to Average
Components of BH Traffic Change Over Time
New Forecast of Internet Traffic from H-S Lines
Dial-up Traffic
FTTP Traffic
Total Internet Traffic Forecast
Lightwave Network
Network Location of Internet Traffic
Internet Traffic Forecast
Other Traffic Types on the Backbone Network
International Traffic
Network Location of International Traffic
Forecast for International Traffic
VoIP Traffic
Location of VoIP Traffic on the Network
Forecast for VoIP Traffic
Other Data Networks
Location of Other Network Traffic
Forecast for Other Network Traffic
Private Line Networks
Location of Private Line Traffic
Forecast for Private Line Traffic
Voice Traffic
Location of Voice Traffic
Forecast for Voice Traffic
Total Backbone Traffic
Growth of the Internet
Appendix I – IPTV
IPTV Global Architecture
Super Hub Office
Video Hub Office
Serving Offices
Forecast for IPTV Traffic
Appendix II, Traffic Statistics Relationships
Appendix III, Data Traffic Fundamentals
Internet Traffic Calculations
Bits and Bytes
Transfer Rate
Busy Hour Traffic
Protocol Efficiencies
Statistical Multiplexing
Peaking
Summary of Concepts
Table of Figures
Figure 1, Premise for Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
Figure 2, Internet Traffic Formula
Figure 3, Old Forecast - H-S Lines
Figure 4, New H-S Access Forecast
Figure 5, Comparison of Old (2003) and New (2006) Forecasts
Figure 6, xDSL Catches CMs
Figure 7, H-S Access HH Penetration Rate - New Forecast
Figure 8, Details of New Forecast
Figure 9, BH H-S per Line Usage Old Forecast
Figure 10, Original per Line BH Traffic Forecast
Figure 11, New Forecast for Per Line Traffic
Figure 12, Components of New Forecast for per Line Usage in BH
Figure 13, Components of the Total per Line BH Traffic Estimates
Figure 14, Changes in per Line BH Usage Components
Figure 15, File Sharing Component Decomposition
Figure 16, File Sharing Components – 2006
Figure 17, File Sharing Components in 2010
Figure 18, File Sharing Components Change Over Time
Figure 19, Internet Traffic Formula
Figure 20, Forecast for Internet Traffic from H-S Accesses
Figure 21, Old Forecast for H-S Traffic
Figure 22, Dial-up Lines Forecast
Figure 23, Dial-Up Traffic Forecast
Figure 24, H-S vs. Dial-Up Traffic
Figure 25, Ratio of H-S Traffic to FTTP per Line Traffic
Figure 26, FTTP Line Forecast
Figure 27, FTTP Traffic
Figure 28, Lightwave Network
Figure 29, Network Location - Internet Traffic
Figure 30, Internet Total Traffic Forecast
Figure 31, Internet Traffic Change over Time
Figure 32, Network Location of International Traffic
Figure 33, International Traffic
Figure 34, Location of VoIP Traffic
Figure 35, VoIP Traffic
Figure 36, Location of Other Network Traffic
Figure 37, Other Data Networks
Figure 38, Location of Private Line Traffic
Figure 39, Private Line Networks
Figure 40, Location of Voice Traffic
Figure 41, Voice Traffic
Figure 42, Total Traffic Forecast
Figure 43, Backbone Growth Rates
Figure 44, Internet Growth Rate - New Forecast
Figure 45, IPTV Global Architecture
Figure 46, IPTV Traffic
Figure 47, Bandwidth Requirements - Improved Compression
Figure 48, Traffic/Speed Relationships
Figure 49, Example of Various Traffic Sizes
Figure 50, New Transfer Rate Forecast
Figure 51, Summary of Concepts

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